It was my stop. I also just shorted ZM Jul18 fly @ 1.5 this morning. I am long absolute prices but short Jul-Aug-Sep curvature as the inversion is getting too steep in the summer. I see no fundamental reason for Mar-Jul to be in contango and Jul-Oct inverted. South american supplies come earlier. Perhaps the logic is rationing will begin in July but it is a longshot.
Long Apr Ethanol @ 1.458 after major stocks draw/ production fall. I missed the initial reaction to the EIA numbers( was scalping other stuff ), but wanted to be long ethanol for quite some time. The news in general are quite bullish ( China mega ethanol plan will need imports, Brazil imports from the US even with the tariff...) despite the refinery bankruptcies and political climate around RFS.
Went long MWN18/MWU18 @ -8 at the Close. -The spread is priced as if 2018 HRS crop was even tighter than 2017 when even acreage is still completely unknown. -Seasonality. -Funds are now short.
Cocoa took an encouraging first step away from the consolidation around the 200 day moving average yesterday. The next obvious obstacle is testing the prior high from recent sessions around 2100. Another barrier awaits at 2150 and then the major hurdle at 2220. A break of 2220 would be a massive boost to move towards 3000 over the coming months but there's a lot of work to be done between 2150 and 2220.
A weak candle was posted on Friday by sugar and it seems every small rally in the last couple of weeks has been sold off quite heavily even as the March contract comes to a close. The May contract looks even worse. This is certainly not the price action I was anticipating and although it might rally again from around 13 cents it seems there's better options elsewhere specifically cocoa being the stronger performer. I'm out.
Cocoa holding well in the face of the DXY rally Cocoa is holding its own against the rally in the US dollar index over the last few sessions. Thursday's session was not great but more or less just consolidation in the action so far which is very positive and in the short term I fully expect the price to make it's way to the 10th of November high of 2235. I think I expected more resistance around the 2150 area however it looks like it's made pretty short work of that and I think once the US dollar starts to sell off again then we will soon see a test of the November High. Interesting article out the other day by Macquarie Bank on rotation into commodities and whilst I am obviously talking my own book it was good to see some Momentum building for a rally in the sector. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/macquarie-buy-commodities-reflation-2018-2
Cotton rallied early but now looks like it might fall back Some interesting price action in Cotton over the last three sessions with the price more or less stabilising just above 77 and then posting two impressive bullish candles back to back before faltering at the 80 level. I suspect given how quickly a negative candle entered the fray after a brief rally that we will probably see Cotton sell off further and drift down to the 75 to 73 Cent region. On the positive side, the big green candles on the 20th and 21st of February were on much higher volume so that's something to give comfort to the bulls. I'm still sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how it holds around 75 cents (I'm assuming the correction is not done and prices are still going to come back a little further).