Cocoa - worth a shot near the 200 day moving average? Cocoa falls back to the short-term trend line from the 26th of December. Even though the candle posted on the 7th was a big red candle with high volume after a doji on big volume the trend remains intact. If there were people that went long from the lows around Christmas then I would suspect some of them may want to take profit on that signal especially if their focus is short term. It's been roughly a 10% move in the underlying price so that's a good return on futures. Also importantly the close appears to be just above or at the 200 day moving average which is showing signs of turning higher. All of this is a positive and I would say if you are looking to go long then this is definitely a good position with a stop at 1950. The other interpretation is this is a false break of the 200 day moving average but I think it's definitely worth the risk given the relatively steady manner in which it has moved higher since the lows in late December.