Long SBK18/SBN18 @ -0.18. - New tariffs on ethanol imports in Brazil will make the mills switch to more ethanol than sugar in the near future. - Front of the curve( Oct/Mar ) is at historical average while May/Jul is low. - Mar/May has started to move a bit last month.
Here's a Feeder Cattle Calendar Spread that I shorted just after the open on Sept 20, and literally came within a single tic of getting stopped out on - getting near to my profit target now. I use modeled volatility and trading range to set stop-loss and profit targets. In hindsight I could have been a bit more patient with my entry...
GF is quite hard to trade based on the forward curve. Even in the liquid front months, todays' curve may be completely different from yesterdays'. Plus it is driven/influenced by the cash index in the last month. Your technical models may work better in this volatile environment.
I tread quite lightly and take few trades when it comes to livestock and cotton. I really have to have a high confidence threshold...
What are the easiest market for you ? Currently Robusta Coffee is my big looser And I am afraid of meats because the curve is such mess (because you cant store the stuff)
A snippet of two guys' strategies for the incoming crop report... http://www.cmegroup.com/education/usda-crop-reports.html