Ag trade ideas

I wonder if there is a trade to do with the divergence between oil/ethanol versus bean oil and palm oil.
I feel that the corn and soybean didnt react to the crazy move in oil
However its kind of difficult to know how much impact oil will have on ethanol & bean oil consumption

 

Of course ethanol is dropping with oil so ethanol production margins are down to nil now, but at the same time cheap oil will increase consumption and thus ethanol production because of blending mandates... http://www.agrimoney.com/news/oil-price-tumble-a-positive-for-corn-says-morgan-stanley--7854.html

Interesting idea but the trick is to evaluate the biofuel proportion in bean/palm oil use and the impact on demand...I love those "project trades" by the way

 

Corn has gotten hammered over the past couple of days here, even with a slightly friendly USDA report on Monday. That's a good article on the ethanol demand.

 

Since fuel costs are such a big part of farming production, no doubt it will help - but you have to also suspect that the corn/ethanol crush will be the sharper side of that double-edged sword. Question is, will more farmers increase Soybean acreage next season ?



It almost seems like switching from Corn to Beans won't gain much in terms of what the futures market is telling us...



If Mid-West grain farmers could just sneak ONE of these plants in amongst each planted acre of beans or corn, skip the herbicide step, and declare themselves organic:

 

Bought @ last week -7600 and sold today -7050 for a few hundred per position. I'm not sure how much more on the upside. How can you tell what the upside is on these ag spreads?

 

I can't. But this spread kind of broke out of of a trading range between -7000 and -11000 with this weird shape triple bottom. I think it will go to -5000... And anyway the seasonals are still bullish fats vs feeders until early February, so I can't see a reason to get out now...I have a longer term view than you it seems. Good "scalp" anyway.

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/ethanol-futures-hit-9-year-low-weighing-on-corn-prices--7865.html

 

Now I feel insecure about this spread.Thank you man...lol... If Fats breaks previous low of last month, perhaps I am exiting...

 

In memory of my hard earned dollars who lost all their value where I live this morning, I will observe a day of silence.

 

Fuck this. Life continues. Anybody has an idea if the CHF mess can have repercussions on cocoa. Barry Callebaut and Nestlé are Swiss...