Second try long Jan/Mar Soybeans. Only a "scalp" as I will close if it doesn't follow Nov before WASDE.
When you say scalp, it means short term or a tight stop loss ? I agree with being long close expiries and short longer term expiries in the US markets. However, with such enormous stocks, I dont understant why we dont a large contango to pay for storages ?
I mean really short term. If there is no reaction to the guy chasing delivery in spot Nov, I close. Apparently, the demand in soybeans is quite strong and stocks are not that large short term. Brazil has really tight stocks which makes US cheaper right now and 2 weeks were really large export Wise in October. There have been a few articles on DTN about the Under estimation of demand in soy.
Heads up sugar people, WSJ has an article on it (meaning here comes the dumb money): http://www.wsj.com/articles/hedge-funds-load-up-on-sugar-1447114535
Dumb money can be pretty strong, imagine your shorted the NASDAQ in 1998 when dumb money was investing... I believe strongly in the Keynes quotation: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"