Ag trade ideas

I remember a move being briefly discussed awhile back, but do any of you all regularly trade the swings in the cotton spreads and flys? I don't have the data through IB, just looking through Scarr, but seems like there are some pretty decent swings that are regularly overdone, assuming their data is correct. I need to add that data package I guess and see.

 

Went long NY Cocoa Dec, 3393 - based on double bottom looking behavior and London Cocoa displaying a similar upward pattern.

 

I burnt myself already twice in this trade.. HRS Exports are really really bad. SRW exports are just average/bad.
However, Russia is getting more and more expensive so maybe it will let space to the US origin ?

 

Yes. I am reconsidering closing it. KWH/ZWH is inverted as well but KWZ/ZWZ resisted quite well to friday's wheat plunge. If it doesn't move higher in the next few days, I will close it.

 

I have been short London cocoa Dec/Mar for a long time. I placed a stop loss at my entry point of 18 when I saw this pattern.

 

Here it is. Out @ 18 for another scratch...Tough lately.

 

Seasonality is bullish on soyoil ?

 

I mean the seasonality says that contango should increase ?

 

From early september, I suffer on spreads, commo markets are strange

 

decrease. Bull spread. Quite reliable over the last 30 years.

Damn, it' s the second time I get killed on those false short squeeze on robusta...