Afternoon Recap News by Arlan Suderman ( Tuesday 07/24/2012 ) Part I.

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 24, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello Again to All.

    Exist the following News: .

    Part I.


    Prices firm off mid-session lows as yield data emerges to provide a wake-up call for fund managers.

    Published on: Jul 24, 2012

    July 24, 2012

    USDA released its weekly crop progress and condition report Monday afternoon, confirming ongoing deterioration in the nation's corn and soybean crops. Yet, grain and oilseed prices continued to slide in follow through selling overnight, with fund managers watching chart signals and deepening economic worries. Those concerns were strengthened this morning when Moody's gave a negative outlook for Germany's rating and U.S. manufacturing data showed the slowest growth since December 2010. Yet, housing prices firmed, suggesting that we may be turning the corner in that sector of the economy.

    Even so, liquidation pressures in the grains increased this morning as a strong thunderstorm rumbled through the Chicago area, knocking out power for many in the city. The storm helped traders focus on weather forecasts that are a bit wetter for the Midwest, although I still do not see the type of pattern change that is desperately needed. Trade chatter is increasingly focusing on buying opportunities on this price break, with reports of old-crop and new-crop cash offers still well above the futures on growing fears among end users that they will not be able to find the bushels.

    Get real-time reporting of crop ratings, changing weather forecasts and other factors impacting grain and oilseed prices at View the comments online for free or set Twitter to send those comments directly to your cell phone, after first checking on your carrier's incoming text rates, if any.

    Commodity Weather Group's Market Impacting Weather:

    Midwest: Showers favored central Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, far northern Illinois, northern Indiana and far southwestern Michigan overnight, following highs in the upper 90s to mid-100s in all but northern and eastern fringes of the belt yesterday. Scattered thundershowers will initially continue to focus in the northern and eastern Midwest, but a chance for some rainfall does move into far southern Iowa, northern Missouri and central Illinois by Thursday and early Friday.

    Overall, the event will not be widespread or heavy, but some improvement in topsoil moisture is possible from mostly .50 to 1.25" rainfall. The more notable amounts and coverage are still expected across much of Wisconsin, western Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. Temperatures will spike into the upper 90s to 100s today in the southwestern 1/2 of the Midwest and tomorrow across all but the northern and far eastern areas.

    This will cause some further stress to filling corn and pod-setting soybeans in nearly 2/3 of the Midwest that remains notably dry at the moment. Readings moderate back into the mid 80s to low 90s for the northern and eastern belt from Thursday onward but remain well into the 90s in the southwestern 1/4 of the belt. Disturbances will remain small and tough to pinpoint in terms of exact timing in the 6 to 15 day period, but the most frequent chances will be across the northwestern and eastern parts of the belt. A significant turnaround in soil moisture is unlikely, but the expected showers later this week and then again on Monday/Tuesday next week (mainly Iowa/Illinois) will gradually reduce the most severely dry areas to 1/2 or less of the belt.

    Stress will be most likely to cause some reduction in yield for soybeans in sections of eastern Michigan, Missouri, southwestern Illinois, Kansas and Nebraska that are most likely to miss much of the rain through the period. CFS weekly forecast guidance continues to support some rain in the northern and eastern belt for the 16-30 day period. The southwestern half of the corn and soybean belt will continue to struggle to get enough rains given the low soil moisture. Additional loss of soybean yield potential is still likely in that region.

    Argentina was mostly dry over the past week. The lack of rains in next 10 days will continue to reduce soil moisture supplies. However, the drought monitor shows that only 10% of the wheat area is in drought (sequia) and the main areas still have adequate moisture. This could become a concern for vegetative development next month unless there is a notable change in the current pattern.


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.