afternoon bounce?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ptrjon, Aug 11, 2010.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S

    Got to love a market like this, the normal buy and hold investor will never come back to this rigged market, by now most know its extremely risky and well, pretty much manipulated.
     
    #11     Aug 11, 2010
  2. Hard to believe there was not a repeat of another perfect quarter for GS and the others. Shame on them... when you are granted special banking privileges to trade customer deposits backed by FDIC and your margin call is tapping the US treasury heads should roll for not maintaining the perfect streak. How the hell can you lose when you have no skin in the game? bonuses? they should underwrite a vegas derivative and martingale on red 24 hours a day.


     
    #12     Aug 11, 2010
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    The market is now closed. There was just no buying today. That was made clear in the morning when the ES 1093.75 low was finally taken out and instead of a palsied jerk through the swing low we had one spinning top after another. Why because everyone was short and holding short, there were no longs to freak out when their stops were hit, because there were no stops reposing just below the swing-low, and no new shorts to accelerate the fall. (Everyone was short already, remember?) After 9:45 CST The market went down like a leaf floating to the bottom of a still lake; like a bloated corpse with a too small concrete block tied to one ankle. Curiously, the dollar bounced off of support like a BB dropped onto a marble floor. I say curious, because what was in yesterday's Fed report that could possibly be interpreted as bullish for the dollar? I suppose it had to do with the move into Treasuries and simultaneous Euro weakness as the Euro bounced off of resistance. I am still clinging to my delusion of a Fall rally as nothing I've seen yet from the Federal Government should have any effect on the dollar other than to weaken it further. But I am foolish enough to go out on a limb and say that if we don't get a Fall rally in spite of the November election, that's is a doubly bad sign, and we should all stock up on bottled water and Hostess Twinkies. We will see everything more clearly next week. Perhaps its time to reserve spots on Lufthansa for a Fall vacation in Amsterdam.
     
    #13     Aug 11, 2010
  4. ptrjon

    ptrjon

    great post. to answer your one question- the Fed said they will be buying treasuries to inject cash into the economy to help fuel the "economic recovery". Someone needs to tell the fed that their interest in the U.S. dollar is a poor investment.
     
    #14     Aug 11, 2010
  5. spindr0

    spindr0

    A coupla consecutive days like today and maybe they'll start running for the door en masse. Gimmee some of that old time rock and roll !!!
     
    #15     Aug 11, 2010
  6. We are not in a deflationary environment yet. You'll know it when you see it through the tears in your eyes. Don't worry about questioning me, just take a random sample of 20 different commodity prices, relative to early 2009...you'll see what I'm talking about. We are teetering on the disinflation/mild inflation tightrope for now. Could it happen? Yes. Is it occuring now? Nope.
     
    #16     Aug 11, 2010
  7. of course we are. Even Fed has acknowledged that and has fully debunked their inflationary scenario. You did not read my previous post at all. Why commodities are bought has nothing whatsoever to do with an inflationary scenario. It is simply that investors chase yield and do not get it anyplace else. Japan is now going through a deflationary environment for more then 15 years but when you go out in Tokyo at night you feel the old times are rolling. No signs of economic contraction whatsoever.

    Everything but commodity prices is contracting. Very simple. If you dont see it first hand or in the released numbers then I suggest you are pretty blind.

     
    #17     Aug 11, 2010
  8. I bought every low and preceeded to lose money on all them trades as they never rallied far enough so i would have got out. A grind down. Hardly a classic bear trend, more like a bull market upside down.
     
    #18     Aug 11, 2010
  9. piezoe

    piezoe

    You are jumping the gun just a bit. Not everything but commodity prices is contracting. There are still segments of the economy that are seeing rising prices. Commodity prices have certainly contracted from their highs, no one will argue that, but they seen to be fairly stable right now. Be very patient,and if you are, you will eventually see that commodities priced in dollars rise in price. Look at the entire U.S. economy including food, energy, services, housing, etc. When you do that you will find that inflation overall is being nicely contained by the recession, but we are no where near significant overall deflation yet. Might happen, might not. If it does happen, you can come back and gloat about it then. This is not 1933 all over again, not yet anyway (It might turn out to be worse!) :eek:
     
    #19     Aug 12, 2010
  10. You repeat yourself and again display your ignorance to reading others' posts carefully. I told you why commodity prices prove to be relatively stable. But again, its not because of inflationary tendencies, its because its about the only asset class that investors believe is not gonna get completely bombed out because of excessive government intervention and borrowing. Commodity prices have almost completely decoupled from price driving/price setting concepts.

    We are not yet in the depths of deflation, I give that to you. But I dont even know how you can argue with the CPI numbers we have seen. What is there to argue about? What is to argue about the housing market? What is there to argue about employment and consumer spending. Historically, there has never been an inflationary environment during times of low employment and consumer spending. Are you trying to argue that this time is different?

    I still argue with you not because you have a different opinion, which I would be happy to accept, but because you do not even seem to see and agree with the facts before you form your opinion.

     
    #20     Aug 12, 2010