After using this trading simulator I'm convinced technical analysis simply doesn't work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by nxt7, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. This is the proper mindset. Every developing trader should print this. hang it on their wall, and read it once a day. It's the basis for structuring a proper trading plan
     
    #71     Mar 14, 2016
  2. Once I figured out the "trap" of trading on each chart or every bar, then I just used some basic support/resistance and did pretty well...One of the major things missing from a game like this is the "context" of the market...Although it is interesting at the end to find out the time periods of each chart...

    chartgame.jpg
     
    #72     Mar 14, 2016
  3. DDR

    DDR

    K-pia likes everything stupid ...LOL
     
    #73     Mar 14, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  4. +
     
    #74     Mar 14, 2016
  5. Instead of asking for more moderation of opinions you do not like obviously, you should instead provide the evidence. I am also tired of people like you who claim TA works but I am not asking for moderation of their opinions. The motives of people who call for less democracy are always questionable. I propose to you to start a journal and provide this audience 30 well-defined ex-ante trades based on TA so we can evaluate your claims. Failure to do this will be an indication that you are the comical one and you have nothing while your motives for supporting TA will remain questionable. This forum provides a platform for posting a journal and you should take the opportunity to prove that TA works or refrain from calls to limit the freedom of expression of those you do not agree with. BTW when people finally realize that TA does not work and make these posts in ET that is raising the quality of this forum. You see, there are different opinions.
     
    #75     Mar 14, 2016
  6. DDR

    DDR

    My point is quite valid son, the rehashing of the same subject gets boring or are you the chump that likes reading the same book 12 times expecting a different outcome. Opinions are welcome I'm not opposing that, but rehashing the same pointless subject I do.
    Other / lesser forums do which is why I'm not with them. Does the name "Elite" describe average. Think about that if you can. Moderation is needed to provide a distinction.
     
    #76     Mar 14, 2016
  7. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    Most people at this forum and at most other forums do not have the time to do a journal or they do not like to do journals. That's why there's a low percentage of members doing journals (e.g. Elitetrader.com). Further, of that low percentage of members that do journals...most of the journals only last 1 - 2 months in length. In addition, most of them do not keep a daily or monthly performance record in which often results in the readers wondering if the trader is profitable on not profitable. In fact, some journals intentionally do not keep a daily or monthly performance record and they then pretend that's being transparent. Yeah, pigs can fly.

    Simply, knowing the above, its NOT likely someone will start a trade journal and then REVEAL their trade method along with posting live calls or PnL statements to prove something works or does not work along with being transparent via maintaining daily or monthly performance record.

    Thus, you only get a journal that has one and not the others...a method revealed (in general) in the journal but no consistent live calls or consistent posted PnL statements or you get a journal with consistent live calls (e.g. see the Emini ES Journal) or consistent posted PnL statements (e.g. see the old PnL statement threads from several years back) without anyone revealing the in-depth details of their TA methods.

    My point is this...there indeed are trade journals by TA users as noted above. Yet, nobody has the time nor energy to satisfy all conditions (details about their TA method with live calls/PnL statements with daily/month/yearly performance record). They instead just do one or the other...just not all in the same journal to satisfy most traders definition of proof.

    Further, there's always that definition of what is "proof". Its loosely or vaguely used in debates without any definition. Some profitable TA users in the past are discretionary users (not using automation) and consistently posted broker statements in the PnL threads. Yet, they are discounted or dismissed because they "refuse" or "not able" to reveal their trade method or edge and the reason for such (refusal or not able) is explained further below.

    Therefore, its safe to assume that those that want proof that they really want access to the trade method (every little detail about it) so that they can use it and then determine if it works or doesn't work considering consistent broker statements here at this forum has never satisfied a definition about "proof".

    Yes, it works both ways. It will always remain questionable for both sides of the coin because we all know that real money trading has big difference in the results versus backtesting results. This forum is litter with journals as proof of such.

    Thus, just because someone uses TA and has a positive expectancy in their backtest...its extremely difficult to reproduce such in real trading with real money because of that psychological variable shows up in real money trading that's not a variable in the backtests. Simply, most traders fail the psychological aspect of trading in a big way...big enough to produce poor trading results with real money regardless in contradiction to the backtest results. Seriously, take a closer look at those ET members that posted in the past in the PnL statement threads...the ones that were consistently profitable and use TA. You'll notice that TA wasn't the only thing they used and you'll also notice they had a ton of experience and they just didn't think like the typical trader.

    TA, experience, well capitalized, well discipline, strong understanding of the markets, strong psychology and many other variables that the typical trader doesn't have or underestimate.

    Thus, its pointless to ask someone to reveal their TA as proof considering the obvious that most don't reveal their method and that those that say TA works...it ain't the only variable in their trading plan.

    That's the advantage for those that do not believe that TA works. They know that those profitable traders using TA are not using it alone. They know there are other key variables to that trader's success. Yet, they concentrate on the TA not to be strategic in the debate...they do it because too many TA users walk around pretending its the only thing in their trading plan and that the other variables I mention has no importance.

    By the way, another fact that points back to the experience, psychology and understanding of the markets as ingredients on that pizza...give 10 traders the exact same trade method while trading the exact same trading instrument during the exact same time duration...

    You will get 10 different trade results because its not automated from entry to exit. Simply, we all have different tastes...what works for us may not work for someone else because of the discretionary application when comparing one person to another person. That's why some traders say that trading itself is part art and part science.

    As DDR suggests, profitable traders that happen to be using TA, its not the only thing they're using and to ask for them to prove that TA works via concentrating only on the TA is kind'uv like asking someone to prove that a particular pizza taste good or not taste good via only tasting one ingredient on the pizza while ignoring that fact that there are other ingredients on the pizza. Its a silly request because its that "togetherness" of those other ingredients that gives the end conclusion about the pizza.

    It taste good or it does not taste good. Heck, even the crust (the trader) for the pizza is an important ingredient.

    Let the naysayers speak and let the believers speak but just remember that both sides of the camp aren't willing or not able to provide "proof" that it works or doesn't work that will satisfy the other side of the camp. The only time moderators or Baron himself is needed is when statements are made that are personal attacks, harassment, trolling or even when attacks are thrown at the sponsors of this forum that keeps this forum free for the users.

    Without the moderators or Baron (ET management), we'll go back to this forum dark ages in its history when there were no Chit Chat threads, no Political & Religion threads. A time period when all those basement discussions showed up in all the trading related threads...like some bar fight in which you hit anything that came near you. :mad:
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2016
    #77     Mar 14, 2016
  8. It's like evolutionists vs. creationists. Only acount statements count in trading. But I'm willing to listen to both sides.
     
    #78     Mar 15, 2016
    Levels likes this.
  9. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    Principle of Charity.
     
    #79     Mar 15, 2016
    goodgoing likes this.
  10. DDR

    DDR

    LOL :sneaky:
     
    #80     Mar 16, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.