After using this trading simulator I'm convinced technical analysis simply doesn't work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by nxt7, Mar 12, 2016.

  1. Handle123

    Handle123

    In the beginning of a newbie education, none
     
    #51     Mar 13, 2016
    userque, Xela, NoBias and 1 other person like this.
  2. Handle123

    Handle123

    First, I believe in two concepts, use indicators in a way as others don't and second is find out how other use indicators so I am not entering/exiting when they do, cause "they" are usually wrong. That is why failed trendline breaks are one of the strongest signals around. Wait for the masses to get in couple ticks above a trendline, most retail use tight stops or go to breakeven super fast, then bigger traders or HFT forces market to go down to trigger all the stops, it is usually back at trendline which is now lower and where I enter. Actually moving average crossovers work well, but it is a filter to alarm a trader that trend has changed and they need to wait for retracement, people just don't understand that NOTHING foretells the future but your back testing gives probabilities and why sample sizes have to be huge. And you test you want three segments, two which can change-entry and exits, but money management should always be same of how to manage the trade. So like when I automate system, this "package" of money management rules can be dropped into any system I build, small tweaks are made cause time frames make protective stops bigger or smaller, but that's it. Indicators and price give possibilities.
     
    #52     Mar 13, 2016
    hoodyap likes this.
  3. Trading is part art, part science -- that's all i have to say about that. :confused:;)
     
    #53     Mar 13, 2016
  4. Man o Man you are so true
     
    #54     Mar 13, 2016
  5. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    As others have pointed out, your conclusion about TA is way premature. Based on what you've listed, you haven't even covered the tip of the iceberg.

    The longest TA thread n this website covers the ACD method. Did your game cover ACD? Of course not.

    Did your game cover P&F? Of course not.

    The few indicators you listed is a tiny fraction of what's available to the public. Do you think examining these few is reflective of all available indicators? If so, you are sadly mistaken.

    Ask yourself this: Why is there no repository of performance data available for some indicators that have been around for decades? These indicators have been tested countless times starting long ago. Why is there no compilation of the test results? Why is every trader expected to do his own testing from scratch? Of everything? It's a ridiculous situation but this is the world of trading in general and TA in particular.

    Declaring TA doesn't work is like declaring there's no such thing as fresh water because you find yourself on a raft in the middle of an ocean. Escape the ocean and go find that fresh water.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
    #55     Mar 13, 2016
    Xela likes this.
  6. The folly in the game is that most people will play it and assume they have to make a trade on the next bar (they probably also fail to look at the 2/4yr charts) to get an idea of the bigger trend and/or where all the S/R levels are at...Now if you went back into the game and picked only the charts that you felt had some structure to them and then made a mental note of where the better levels are and took trades only at that time, I'd give good odds that you'd beat the buy and hold benchmark.
     
    #56     Mar 13, 2016
    samuel11 likes this.
  7. I Know You

    I Know You

    Have to be very selective who you take advice from here. A lot of posters write total nonsense about what works and what doesn't.
     
    #57     Mar 13, 2016
  8. Xela

    Xela


    Welcome to the forum. Three very interesting posts you've made, so far, for someone who joined only today. :rolleyes:
     
    #58     Mar 13, 2016
    K-Pia likes this.
  9. K-Pia

    K-Pia

    You wrote so much bullshit that you've created a new account ? I mean ... One does not subscribe to a forum, that one thinks is, full of crap. My advice is to never take an advice. That's for sucker only. But don't take it. It's an advice. Ops ...
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2016
    #59     Mar 13, 2016
    Xela likes this.
  10. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    Instead of using chartgame to experiment with TA it would be better to use it without TA as a tool to test your own internal biases. If you loose consistently it shows incorrectly biased thinking.
     
    #60     Mar 13, 2016
    Xela and der_kommissar like this.