S&P's rallied 100 points from overnight limit lock. Bonds off big. Big pharma leading the market. I agreed with your position but anything could happen here. Market got over the Trump fear pretty quickly.
Would you believe I've been touting a Trump W since before the GOP primary? I've done my homework. Look, Romney was an outsider but lacked appeal so they went back to the drawing board. Anyone that thinks Trump hijacked the GOP doesn't truly get how much was at stake here. The GOP only had to distance itself to save face with the far right but was always behind their man covertly. I must say I'm surprised the market rallied as far as it has, but there is still major uncertainty for the next 3, 6, 12 months. And, I think we are already in a downtrend. For simplicity, the two levels I will monitor to average back in to the S&P are 2000 all the way down to 1500. A dip below 2000 would be an acceptable entry to start buying back in, say 25% of your cash position, and if it were to fall to the previous all-time highs (~1500), I'll go 100% high risk assets with remaining cash reserves. Just need a simple game plan, but it must be followed systematically. BD
I 100% agree. It doesn't feel good going partial cash at all-time market highs, but I keep telling myself there will be buying opportunities in 2017 as it's likely going to be a bumpy road. Uncertainty usually is. Great for traders.
What did u make of trumps victory speech ? If trumps tone can calm the markets then surely it can bring calamity too?
First off, the media chumps made sure that 95% of the country went to bed before they 'called it'. Unbelievable bullshit, as it was such a very good and unifying speech. Those media outlets prefer to continue to create the perception of a divide in our country. In Illinois where I live, people are treating me differently being a white man. At a spot where I regularly get coffee on the weekends and talk to the ladies at work, they didn't greet me on Saturday let alone recognize me!! So sad that the media paints a picture of an angry bunch of people (Trump supporters) to scare a major portion of the population when the facts all along pointed to the inevitable end result. Much like in the markets, the media likes to create stories as what is going on even though they represent less than 1% of the population. This false narrative that continues on is doing major damage. My wife and I were actually discussing moving from this state over the weekend. That's how bad it has been around here the past week. I don't know what I blame more, the media or ignorance of our people for this friction. So you see it doesn't really matter what Trump said. The 'rally' tells me insiders knew all along that Trump was the favorite. Last week was still a squeeze. Tech stocks, which are a major component, have been very weak through this all. I am expecting domestic equities to continue to sell off through the end of the year into 2017 as a result of uncertainty. I refuse to connect anymore dots about what may or may not happen. BD
Good analysis. I agree. Market can go anywhere, at this point. My basis for the trade was 100% political. Much more damning info on Hillary, inner circle, and many others in top echelon of Washington. FBI and NYPD has it via Weiners computer (emails), as does wikileaks. They have assured Hillary and crew will be arrested and taken down on pedophilia, treason and national security charges. This was the expectation. This is what Trump ran on - Hillary for Prison. Arresting and prosecuting major criminal infractions. That was the expectation. Trump has basically reversed course on that during acceptance speech and follow up interviews ....FOR NOW....reiterating Clintons are "good people" who he "does not" wish to harm. FBI and NYPD are said to go public anyway. That's why Im still long VIX. Will change opinion as facts change. I think I may be too early on this trade. Trump waiting until sworn in and internally cleans house (2-6 months), then its on him to follow through. Or he will be taken out in 4 years, and Bernie installed.