How funny you should mention this. About 8 trading days ago or so....when the Nasdaq had taken a nice little beatin'..... I happened to see a massive block of April 90 calls on Ebay hit my radar for about 6000 contracts......I laughed to myself....I believe the bid/ask was like .20 - .25........THat person obviously knew what the heck was up....Ebay exploding the other day for $3...those calls increased 500%......sometimes when allot of people are bearish on a stock....or short.....its a bullish sign.....this was completely the case of EXPE last year....people were pounding the tables to short in the $30's & $40's.....within two months it pulled a double and ran all the way to the $80's.....unreal.............I would not be surprised to see EBAY hold at these levels and get one more push......
I'm not short the commodity gold. I was short the stock "gold", but the trade is already done- made some bucks. Anyway, good luck.
Hi Optionplayer, EXPE was also a profitable short play for me. If you can withstand extreme short squeezes , you will end these trades profitable. Regarding Ebay I also expect a further push, as you say, some guys know something. But these guys will take there profits all about at the same time, this is when ebay will fall. EXPE, GOLD, NVDA, KKD, EBay.... I see some parallels. But insiders are making a lot more money than the short seller.
"Best trading patterns" from the almighty legend Mr. Laurence A. Connors. To admit I sometimes lack the patience for the perfect timing of "the double - volume market top method", but it is possible, ask Laurence.
EBAY is like a cult stock, it has its adherents that just won't sell. Sure, it's an overbloated pig, but don't forget the old maxim, "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Ride it for the ups and downs long and short, don't marry yourself to the idea that it "has" to go down. Eventually in time it will adjust to more reasonable valuation, but it could just as easily be through increased earnings rather than price decline (most likely a little bit of both). Just my .02.
ebay wasn't your typical "internet stock" (it actually has earnings -- what a concept!). but i just couldn't justify a 100pe on it. no way. it's had its moment in the sun. maybe if we'd never heard of it before, if it was breaking out on volume, if the general market was at least mildly bullish (or at least not across the board bearish), then i suppose it would be a play. of course, when it comes to longer term stuff, i have no idea.. but that's they way i see it.
I agree - fall indeed. Maybe after they stop running those spicy eBay commercials. See a new thread I started correlating stock run ups with launches of national tv commercials...........
please post the price of EBAY when you try to short it. And more power to you if you can make a profit. It's a very diffcult stock to profit on from the short side. nolan
Hi Nolan, nothing is easy if it comes to making money and you must have a plan to be successful in the long run. I shorted ebay last friday, but only a small position. If it would fall directly from this point I would make only very small gains. So I'm ready to short much more pieces at higher prices, which I expect. As we are still in a bear market it is always good to have some shorts. I hedge with qqq on the long side. My overall portfolio is even quite long at the moment. In my opionion I need patience, time and money to end this thing profitable.