There have been numerous tests with a random entry strategy such as coin flip and other than that nothing but risk management. They all outperformed you.
Laugh out loud. Too much curry spice bro I'll take my 55% after tax annual return repeated thrice with not even a penny lost and just chalk it up to total luck. I never said the trend died I in fact use fractal stochastic models and so it's a long memory process and so yeah that's the whole point of parameter estimation and testing and modeling in the first place
Did you really just say this to someone else while you have been doing nothing but losing for over 20 years .
The dude is so whacked out of his mind he didn't even know that my statement somewhat supported his statement it's typical of this for him Mark Brown does it as well He's a total jackass he said oh I know who you are he had no idea he conflated this account with someone else
It wasn't intentional, I've only dedicated myself to studying this topic since 1999 when I got my first stock and sold it and got lucky that it was a pre IPO priced deal I got offered as a gift for the fact that a lot of the software that I had worked on on the Debian project got used in VA Linux systems . It's set the record for the biggest IPO in history and I advised my co-giftees to sell it because it popped majorly and then was rapidly deflating I ended up turning 2K into 39K overnight and it would have been 54K if I would have driven back to the house fast enough to get my code that I needed to give them to do the transaction. That was such a long time ago but really not that long in the grand scheme of things. I wouldn't trade my particular path for another. In the course of working on my software for trading and doing very advanced solutions of these types of processes based on orthogonal spectral polynomial expansions, I discovered a solution to a very ancient problem that is actually a demonstration of the fact that randomness is dual to wave problems and anyway it makes some problems that were previously computationally intractable to actually be able to be solved very elegantly but I had to develop an entire massive framework for doing sophisticated operations on arbitrary precision variables in Java and that took about a year of intense effort that just now producing results I can use to actually trade calibrate and hedge all this stuff using state of the art models. Specializing in VIX derivatives
At NYU, I took BASIC, Fortran & Cobol programming. This was from 1979 until about 1982. I liked and picked up BASIC & Fortran very quickly. Got "A"s in both. Cobol and I did not get along. To be fair, I was on the Tennis team at the same time and missed some classes. I had to change the course to Pass/Fail and decided to never look back. I later used BASIC to run a Black-Scholes model to print out sheets to bring into the trading crowd. There are just some concepts and studies I pick up easily, but I stay away from the ones that hurt my head. When it comes to trading, I knew my limitations. I took a complex environment with what I called "intermittent chaos," and made a good living with simple Market Maker strategies taking advantage of my knowledge of option pricing and Vol shifts from supply and demand. If I had to put that all in a white paper with the associated math, that would be above me too.
I was in Hawaii on vacation about year and a half ago and I stopped to share a doobie with this guy that was standing near the international marketplace and it seemed like he is just up to something I don't know how to put it so I went over to this guy and told him I was way too sober and to hook me up and he laughed and anyway this guy looked like he had been sitting in the jungle just doing what he wants chilling out not giving a damn he did not look like a trader and the guy asked me four star or five I said what I'm not military he said they wanted him to be a botanist at first but he didn't want to do that and how someone came up to him and told him that he saw his microfische film and he was above and beyond anything he would ever comprehend but that whatever he needed to let him know and they would get it and it was very strange thing for this guy to tell me because I had just earlier that day gotten off the phone with my science math teacher from high school who I had called just on a whim and he had told me a story which was very pretty much verbatim the story he related about this guy having some kind of microfiche film in the library and how this guy was super wise but was like looking like a bum you couldn't tell and so anyway this guy tells me that he did high frequency trading but it didn't work so he pivoted to options and that that was his bread and butter and everyone thought he did it with advanced programs but he literally did not use any of the programs because he didn't have them done he did it all in his head and this guy's telling me this and I am sitting here listening to him say that and stunned a disbelief because I know almost certainly this is not true for the guy saying it but it is true for me it was as if he was speaking as if he was me it was I guess the definition of channeling and it kind of blew my mind. The next day I was walking around and I randomly ran into a guy who I just gave food to he was a homeless guy well I thought homeless anyway well anyway the guy starts lecturing on the micholson Morley experiment and telling me how they determined the the tenants are relativity and how that even though that is the case that he thought indeed the variable speed of light could be possible and I told him that I was working on the Rieman hypothesis and I gave him a copy of my work and before he even like opened it it was like he intuited like what it meant because I was positing that this was related to the non-perturbative quantization of Yang Mills fields and he tells me okay after we had had a serious and intense conversation about deep physics things and while Russia was doing what it was doing and this sort of thing and then he tells me that if I need an audience that his niece Kamala Harris is apparently pretty high up there these days and he was kind of modest about it and I was like what are you kidding and then he told me the story that he is half brother with her father and in fact they taught at the same university and he was a science professor for 13 years but his wife had died and he had just kind of given up on things I guess but after meeting me he rekindled his interest in these things it was like I had reminded him of something and I was very incredulous as to this really rough looking guy hibernating and a Yankees cap in Honolulu a very nice area by the way and I also did this I also pretended to be homeless for some time it was quite funny to see the way people treat me and then other days I would look nice and then people treat me like a millionaire I'm very sensitive to peoples observations or maybe too much so in a place like that. All of the facts that the guy had told me about her father's profession and assignments and things was such that it checked out and agreed with everything I could find with publicly available information after I had later gotten home to my hotel room and the matter of factness by which he said this I really I don't have any doubts that much that he was who he said he was but I just found it bewildering but it did explain the presence of what I suspected to be secret agents of some sort that were operating like right there in that area it's a very happening hotspot and I thought who knows what the hell's going on in this world they could be anti-terrorist people they could be jackasses dressing up and playing Halloween games anything like that but I guess they were wondering who's this guy who just came up to him and brought this food. So this was before I actually figured out the right way to prove it so I came back to Texas to have a surgery and I was working on trading software and had actually been up and working on rhemon hypothesis for now and as soon as I'd given up like that day I made a breakthrough and which that made me pivot directions such that I had to stop what I was doing and finish out the infrastructure and to figure out what theoretically was going on with this operator since it was apparently unsolved and so I solved it and so I'm like and I really have solved it because this looks too fundamental and no apparently I discovered a new fundamental method of solving stationary operators which will probably generalize elegantly to non stationary processes but this general method of solving these types of operators I didn't intend it to be general I invented it on a hunch because there was a theorem that set a solution must exist but there was no such solutions published and so I'm very hard-headed and it took me about 6 months to come up with the answer but it's correct and I'm working on the publication now. Well it turns out to be a publishable results even without its direct link to such a profound thing because it turns out this model is known as what is known as the random wave model and the physics and the math behind that is talking about making your head hurt you can't imagine it makes my head hurt to know these idiots spent so much time when the solution was so simple but anyway I'm rambling now I'm making my software available to compute these solutions available under the business source license in this says that okay the source is open but if anyone uses it for any purposes of profit or production whatsoever they have to purchase a license from me and the software will revert to a pure open source license after 4 years they can also purchase a library which depends on this open public part which is not itself open to the public but is the specialized financial API to do option pricing and calibration and hedging and things like that and I intend to license this to whoever needs it and whoever wants to hire me to integrate it into their systems I will see about making myself available to do so but this would be a major competitive advantage to have a model that is implemented so efficiently and with such an elegant framework so that it's not a lot of complication in the sense that it makes available the carrying out of calculations which would otherwise be prohibitive in terms of their complexity and the number of human hours and that you would have to invest and pay these people to do this job which even if they do it perfectly it's very tedious and error-prone this removes a whole bunch of stuff from the cost and time variable side of the equation and actually provides a solution which is would be very challenging to beat even if you hand coded and all these types of operations so it wraps into a c library called Arb which is now part of Flint which is super high performance awesome library written by a group of super smart folks over the last 10 to 15 years and my stuff looks into it with a interface generated via swig which makes the c code available to Java and then I built an extensive API for evaluating and compiling expressions in any way My hunch is that anyone who trades Vicks or any of its related instruments or any amount of option volume market makers would definitely want to use this but but I need to finish product development in actually put this to the test for my own account first before I go offer this to anyone. This turned out to be absurdly long stream of consciousness I will employ Claude to boil this down into a more presentable story
Study the markets and take your own notes. Back-test/back-check continuously. That's how you learn. Not just blindly trusting or putting faith in some random author that may or may not have a clue. If you're still reading and studying books by others after 10 + years you're a newbie still. You should have your own private book by now - filled with screenshots, tabular data, statistics and tested observations. This is the only way you can develop a method that is your own and one which you trust.
I agree with you on everything there except I've never back tested when you do you get results that you would not have necessarily got and you feel differently about them then you would have when the thing was live and you were doing it. I've only ever forward tested