Ok let me put it this way. I have no problem determining where the move will react in a contra-trend fashion, but the reaction is short lived and the exit I trail. I let it run by trailing, because if I knew where to kill it, I could simply reverse there and also do the precision entry with the dominant trend, that's where I'm failing. I know Im doing something right because I take very little heat on my entries, allowing me to use good leverage, as I can use good size and low risk, I just want to do better by being able to do the same but with the trend so my trails work better. If the trend is up, I only make money shorting, but the short doesnt run very far, if the trend is down, I only make money buying, and also they dont run very far; most of them anyway. Joe
Here's a sample trade. Trend is up, and there I am shorting. Now in this case, I was able to trail it well, got lucky, most times they dont run as much. Yet for the upside I couldnt find entries Joe
This is a classic problem for beginning traders because they're taught by technical analysis to wait for pullbacks... They run out of patience and trade the pullbacks instead of the main trend. The solution for this is to sit on your hands more. Your entry is somewhere after the big green bar that breaks the down trend... At your blue arrow... Enter on the red bar after the big green bar with a stop loss at the bottom of the big green bar!
Trading the pullback and not the main trend, that is exactly my problem. I just need the main trend entry to be as low risk as my contra trends are. Ok see here's the thing, those type of entries, are not as accurate as my method of entry. In this example it worked great because it ran well and with momentum, many times instead of full reversal chop occurs, then i lose, over and over, so I stopped taking them all together. Joe
Yeah, that happens to everyone... It's happened to me countless times as wel. Generally, it happens because the definition of a "pullback" is sketchy and often pullbacks turn into complete trend breakdowns... Ironically, this is because you've waited too long...! Your timing is way off... Think more in terms of "You've got to strike when the iron is hot"... and "hot potato"... That is... Forget your entry... jump in when the market is moving big and get rid of it before it goes against you. This goes against what is taught by TA... Technical analysis teaches you to wait for pullbacks which is bullshit. You want to buy high, hold and sell higher... If it goes against you have a good exit point ready. You've got to nibble at the market until you hit the big trade, so you need low commissions. Trading is more of a reflex game than a thinking game. That's what I learned as a prop trader. If you can't handle the reflex game and few people can... Trust me... Then you need a new entry method developed specifically for "the main trend"...
I don't disagree about this being a patience and reflex game, absolutely agree on all accounts. Still, I have been able to identify high probability points of small reactions that have been making me money. Just trying to advance to the next level, that's all. Thank you for your post Joe
The reflex game and hoping to hit a big trade is in fact the next level. Many don't make it... Otherwise, you will have to switch to longer term position trading. There is no other way to capture the big moves accurately unless you have a friend on the inside with specifics and you're perfectly willing to engage in "insider trading"...!
I'm willing to work hard at the reflex game, just afraid of getting chopped to death doing so. Sometimes you think you see something special, and the thing just sits idle stopping bulls and bears simultaneously. I take my stop, and am capable of reversing on the spot, just not sure how to survive "noise".
Don't reverse on the spot... You're looking to trade the big trend afterall. The only reason you might want to reverse is if you think that the big trend has changed... Unfortunately, it's all up to how you interpret your entry point at that time and luck! There really is no way around this...