Advice from the experienced

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by vanilla2, Mar 26, 2003.

  1. gnome

    gnome

    You sure dodged that like a mother-in-law's phone call!!

    First, let me say... my thoughts on trading are not usually comfortably received, but here goes.

    1. It's all a guess.
    2. Determine what appears to you to be a "trading set-up"... this requires a presumption.
    3. Place your stop at least 3 points (in the ES or SP) beyond the setup's defining value.

    Example. Say you've "presumed" that at SP 850, this dip would be a "50% fib retracement and recover" of the just completed advance. You are guessing what this setup is, and your stop at 847 or 846 leaves a little room for overshoot and for most of the stops to get gunned before they get to yours.

    In each case, you "take a guess, with a stop" and hope you get enough correct before you get stopped out of all of your capital.

    Over time, you will learn what to guess at and what to pass up.

    That's as good as it gets, imo.
     
    #21     Mar 26, 2003
  2. Our J-trader system is not black box, and we are currently using it for a few accounts and it works. We just launched it a couple of weeks ago on a system that is doing well.

    The brokerage biz is tough with all the low rates that have swamped the industry but it can be good to you if you are patient.

    comp
     
    #22     Mar 26, 2003
  3. jaan

    jaan

    welcome to system trading. looks like you managed to skip the first "fooled by curve fitting" phase (good for you!), and have entered the second "damn, finding systems that work is HARD" phase. as there is no third phase, you better get used to it...

    - jaan
     
    #23     Mar 26, 2003
  4. Yes I did dodge it but it is better than speaking out of school.

    comp
     
    #24     Mar 26, 2003
  5. gnome

    gnome

    No "third phase"? What about the "lost all my money, now working at McDonald's" phase??
     
    #25     Mar 26, 2003
  6. That only happens to people who lose 25% of their
    capital and dont quit.

    Then lose 50% and still dont quit.

    Then lose 75%, and still havent discovered they have no edge.

    Then lose 100% and wish they had more to lose. :D

    peace

    axeman

     
    #26     Mar 26, 2003
  7. thanks very much all. even commiseration is worth something.

    axeman, i hear what you're saying. very much wishing i had a phd in physics or stats.. i am just wondering, how have you guys made it long enough to be senior members on this board? are you all institutional?

    i left an IT job on a wall street trading floor, so I've seen it done. but nobody i met there struck me as superintelligent, just extremely hard working with major financial and infrastructure capital. after four years, i decided to try and do it myself, besides wanting to get out of nyc and stop exchanging my labor for a fraction of what i think i'm capable of.

    i haven't been expecting a bullseye in 10 days, or even a year. but i am just a little forlorn by my initial survey of the tools, and i guess... begging ...for a nudge in a good direction.
     
    #27     Mar 26, 2003
  8. Hmmm...

    I'm just curious...seriously curious...why you would think a trader with a successful mechanical system would share it with you...even share with you its framework?

    I only know a few traders with successful systems and they don't share it with anybody.

    Also...I myself use to be a doubting thomas about such systems until someone a few months ago shut me up pretty good via showing it work in person...in realtime.

    (Note: She's an excellent example of those computer nerds that use to be sterotyped in movies from the 80's)

    It was a tad bit scary too watch considering I'm deep seated into discretionary trading (maybe shocked is a better word than scary).

    (Note: They don't trade stocks nor the Eminis and they are trading via very large accounts...very large.)

    There's also that argument that what if traders got their hands on a successful system and begin sharing it...eventually the word will get out and the use of the system will spread like a virus...

    after such...would the system still works?

    Simply...I don't know a whole lot about mechanical systems...

    but I always thought you guys had a belief that the system will begin to lose its viability if shared.

    (Note: I've seen some heated arguments in the past here at ET about the issue of why would a successful mechanical system be shared unless it didn't work)

    Reason why I am prompt to say that you are very naive to think someone would share with you their successful mechanical system.

    You guys put in a lot of long days, long nights, sweat and tears, dollars into such systems...

    I truly doubt someone will come to ET and say I have one...it works...go make a very good living from it...

    freely.

    Simply...if I myself had a successful mechanical trading system...

    I wouldn't share it with anybody.

    Geeesh...if you were a woman...you'll have to bend over a lot of times for me to even give it a second thought about sharing a successful mechanical system with you.

    NihabaAshi
     
    #28     Mar 26, 2003
  9. Vanilla, it sounds like you have the tenacity and good luck with you endevor! comp
     
    #29     Mar 26, 2003
  10. lindq

    lindq

    Try 15 hours a day for the next two years in backtesting, plus quite a few grand spent in losing trades and finding your comfort area.

    But...it can be done. There are many paths to the goal, and you need to put in the time to find what works for your personality, your assets, your time, and your patience. What works for me, or for anyone else, may not at all be right for you.
     
    #30     Mar 26, 2003