when I said cheap I didn't mean far OTM daily FD lotto tickets lol. I mean cheap as in relatively underpriced, favorable IV skew, etc...
About predicting the future in trading it is essentially aligning and reacting. You identify a trend, i. e., the likelihood of price going in one direction in the near future, and align to that direction by buying and react to market movements by being stopped out or setting a profit target. Same logic for trading a reversing trend. Any trade is a prediction of the price movement direction, at least in the immediate future. The longer the time frame the more difficult to be certain of that prediction.
You people who continue spouting this pile of BS are as ignorant as they come in life. Sorry, just couldn't help myself - the ignorance around these statements just gets so tiresome.
Perhaps you would like to explain some more. If he is truly an experienced trader, he knows that it doesn't matter how sure you are about the outcome of a trade. He was trying to take credit for an event that he forecast and had a high degree of confidence in. If you have such high confidence, why not risk 10% or 20% of your capital as a minimum? If you're not willing to risk even 5% of your account on trade, this means that your confidence level in the trade is not that high. Many people say risk no more than 2% per trade, so 5% might be on the high side, but I think still very small for a trade you feel very confidence about. The fact of the matter is that because he is a losing trader (hence why he teaches), he knows the trade can turn out to be a dud regardless of how strongly he feels about it. So its rather dishonest to now claim how sure he was about a trade that ended up working out when he didn't have the balls to go all in. Its extremely easy to wait for something to happen and then state how sure you were of it happening. But if you put 20% of your account on the line, this shows a strong conviction, not after the fact blabbering.
Explanation - the concept of - those who can't do, teach; very tiresome. But more tiresome is that fact that people like yourself have to continue to spout it. Just pass by, don't comment, you added nothing expect to show your own ignorance. But I would bet you feel better about yourself and your trading prowess. Then to go on about risk management and imply, for someone to be worthy, they must do it your way. The arrogance is annoying. If you choose to risk based on how your FEEL about a trade enjoy yourself, but to berate some one for not doing it - childish at best. I wish you good trading and do hope you continue to place 5-20% of your account on your feelings.
You said absolutely nothing to prove your point. I know about 4-5 members here at ET that are killing it in terms of profits. None of them go on youtube every morning sharing their opinion on what the market will do. If you were making millions a year, will you bother with running a trading business? I stand by my comment. If all you will ever risk on a trade is 1-2%, no matter how confident you are in a trade, then it don't go taking credit later for having such a good call. Its just another damn trade. The only reason to point out how brilliant your trade idea was, is to suck people into buying your services, to show how accomplished you are. And what are those services? Oh yes, a futures broker. Instead of extracting money from the markets, which is hard, lets extract money from other traders for a guaranteed income. Seriously, this guy is the one selling the shovels during the gold rush... he is not the guy digging for gold.
Your ignorance is beyond repair - I made no point and have no point. But then again neither did you. But as I did say - I'm sure you feel better about your self and have proven your ability to knock on someone else. This is why this site is no longer what it once was and why the like of FT71 and so many others are no longer contributors. Sorry, tonight I just couldn't help myself. As I said - I wish you good trading in your ignorance.
That catching 4016 trade was not a good trade. I mean it was counter trend and for every time he catches one absolute high he will lose 10 times when he fails to catch.And also typically his win is small and loss is big, because once his position develops into a trend, he will rush to sell it and take a new position opposite to the trend.That is the way a counter trend trader does. I also don' t think you are capable of judging who is good at trading because you yourself are not good enough, so most times your judgements are wrong.