Short HG @ 3.1150. S/L lowered from 3.1225 to 3.1150. Going forward expect an update at the end of the New York trading session as I am busy focusing on the market through out the day. I hope that you understand.
Analysis of the Week: USD/JPY I assert that the fall from 118.66 of December 15, 2016 to 104.63 of March 22, 2018 was minor wave 2, and that USD/JPY is in minor wave 3 going up. We were in a combination wave pattern that featured 2 x-waves. What has changed to cause minor wave 3 to unfold? I propose that the real interest rate differentials, that is the difference in interest rates after subtracting for inflation, between the United States and Japan have become wide enough that investors are now more willing to flee Japanese assets for American assets. This week we saw the yield on the 10-year Treasury note topped 3%, while the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond remain at around zero percent. Expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to maintain its expansionary monetary policy as it is targeting a 2% inflation target after decades of deflation. The BOJ recently announced that it does not expect to hit the 2% inflation target until 2020. This comes after previously announcing that the BOJ had expected to hit the 2% inflation target in 2019. Moreover, this is the sixth time that the BOJ has had to change its deadline for hitting the 2% inflation target. The March core consumer price increase of .9% Y/Y suggested that the BOJ was not on target to meet that goal. Further delays in meeting this 2% inflation target and a widening real interest rate differential will propel USD/JPY higher to test 125.84 in the next 12 months.
1. I never bothered to figure out what my profit factor is after all these years. I figured that since I have no ambition of handling other people's money, then I don't need to know. Maybe we can figure that out when the population size of my trades in this journal is large enough. 2. I imagine that I have a gun with one bullet left. I wait for that one perfect entry point to pull the trigger. I define a perfect entry point as a point that if it goes through, then most likely I am wrong. 3 & 4. It is not so much the quantity of markets, but that the chosen markets move in an Elliot Wave pattern. When you look at my charts, you will see that I mark them with my wave counts. I don't trade other markets because I am not able to see any Elliot Wave pattern in them.