Yah. The market rules and predictions don't. Why the failure of this little pearl? ES isn't GOOG is the obvious one but the correlation between high beta GOOG and volatile ES is quite high (r2 is 0.7-0.8). The dV override would be my pick and of course, it was Turnaround Tuesday. Probabilities are by definition non-binary. lj Doh! How could I have not seen the fact that the CBCC numbers were better than expected was the factor of consequence (not!!!)
What a worthless thread. Can't believe this one isn't in CHIT CHAT Better idea: Create a "Voodoo: Sun, Moon, Wave Tide, Astrology" forum and move it there. Better suited imho.
Gee ETF, coming from a BSD like you I'll just ask the mod to go ahead and shift it. I know you made a monster call yesterday and were whinging about the fact that you weren't truly being appreciated since you got moved to CC. I don't remember any particular pearls of wisdom (were there any other than making the call?) -you know your secret sauce recipe. You are a loud-mouthed edger who attempts to inject some testosterone into your peanut-sized gonads by crapping on everything in sight. The upside to this activity would be the hope that by having the crap come out of your butt it would stop coming out of your mouth but you continue to amaze with your ability to keep splattering it all over the place. I would suggest that your movements are anything but measured which stems from the fact that you are locked into an anal-oral-expulsive state, the only treatment for which is a set of matching butt plugs. I don't predict numnutz. I anticipate. I will however dutifully record what you have said will be so and await with breath held your next oracular pronouncement because I'm sure I'll never hear a retraction. lj
An abbreviated yet expanded version of the AM blab which I screwed up due to lack of proper personal hygiene. And speaking of hygiene, poo-boy hasn't returned but if he does I'm ready with some mudd. The real reason why yesterday's "Just for fun here's another one" didn't work was that the RTH (Regular Trading High - heh) wasn't first, rather the low. A Taylor 'low first' day with all that implies. BTW today is a preM L first with preM H > yesterday's H. Mr.Stinky did make a point in a tantrum elsewhere that we're in the second leg if a new IT and as well a ballsy call that we're going to 1320 on the ES. Here's what he's referring to: You decide but I would suggest filling the daily bars and waiting for the market to tell you and not make ballsy calls. There's lots of cool stuff here and it's worth noting that ALL the JW, '1,2,3' movements, traverse, ... stuff applies to the daily time fractal and it's fun to contrast what one has to do to generate meaningful anticipations here compared to the 5 min ES (or, for drill [not drill sergeant] purposes only, the 2 min YM). Only do the last one in real time if you've been particularly naughty. Ave Caesar .... lj
I mentioned before that I like Al Farley for his wit and market viewpoints. Here's a weekend call for this Monday, 8-4-08: Monday following a labor data selloff usually reverses gears, so watch for a bounce to start the new week. Another V-reversal is possible but not likely, given the corrective look of the intraday patterns. He uses a lot of what I call "price mechanics" which is also the stuff that Victor Sperandeo and the Hirsch's have been into. By price mechanics I mean that they'll take some market observable like "What happens the day after a labor data selloff?" and then simply tally up how often the selloff continues vs how often there is a reversal. The Hirsch's "Down Friday/Down Monday" is another example of this type of data analysis. Good for day traders. Nope. Good for other traders on longer time fractals. Shouldn't be but may be. So why bother? I think what stuff like Farley et al . do gives one a sense of the market and also helps to demystify the'guru', of which there are a mutltitude. So if it helps you consistently make money use it. If not bag it. The ESU8 daily moved down agin and is set to do so agin on Monday but exactly when during the day and for how long and how much me don't know. lj
As of this moment in time, x billion years from the biga-banga, I have decided to harvest all the crap from any of my prior 'non-discussion-only' posts and use them as fertilizer for the roses {Just Joeies, Double Delights, David Austin Englishes (http://www.rosegathering.com/austinth.html), and a number of others} in the garden .. blah and blah. So then, a low < Friday's low having been made during bar 3 of the 5 min ESU8, the next questions be, 'for how long and for how much' and the answer as always is "I don't know, but the market will tell me." lj Krafft-Ebbing in his tome "Psycopathia Sexualis" described some gent who achieved the 'pinnacle of earthly sensations' by viewing a particular type of rose. Looking at those Austin beauties you can certainly understand why. Don't get too close though. They have thorns.
The type 1 dV fail was taken care of at the open. It's a DF/DM kind of week with a 95/5 for a 0/25 bp Fed announcement. So if Ben surprises, expect some more downdraft, which is to say the 'selloff' didn't work. It is worth noting that the 'anti-whiplash zone' (as makosgu calls it) on the ESU8 Globex daily got filled with the tiniest of breaches of the channel RTL. lj
Hmmm. We are 22 min into RTH and there is still a 20-23 bp difference between $INDU and YM. STR-SQU syncheth not. lj Edit: Ooots. Did I really say bps when I meant to say points? Yes you did numnutz, so change it. No. [This is what happens when you spend too much time alone in the garden. Your imaginary friend Tony appears and starts chiding you]. Piss off Tony.
As of 14:37 the push will be for a higher high based on dV considerations alone. Right now we're in a big fat Lateral Movement (all closes inside the forming bar). This could drag on for a bit but ya never know. FWIW it sounded to me like BB said "No more dough" so let's see what the movers and shakers do with that. Where's Paul Volcker? Get him in here. lj