That big, fat 30 min ES channel from 7-22 got even fatter on 7-23 and then ..., well you see what's happening now. For all you PA buffs who've incorporated numerology into your trading protocols, the magical number for today is 11802 or is that 1/11802? The entrée du choix for ES this AM was 1282.50 and if you launched your board at this point you are now in the curl and holding with 12 points in your pocket and possibly more - but wait (time passes ever so slowly)! It looks like something has changed. Is that a dragon-fly doji? Will it continue to fly or will it get squooshed? lj
So far that dragon's trajectory sucks but he has been joined by several others. Let's see what happens (you know like David Attenbororough watching rhe mating antics of the bower bird). lj
Squooshed. Perhaps that quasi-tombstone doji presaged his demise but I think there are probably better ways to understand the outcome. lj
At the time I posted this nugget (of what the reader can decide) my chart showed 3 dragons and a quasi-tombstone. As we all know it only takes a tick to evaporate a doji, which is what my data provider did on a refresh (I'm on continuous feed with good volume and tick data but which is clearly not perfect). I am left now with 2 dragons and no quasi-tombstone which would suggest that indeed this is so. lj
Here's a pattern the EWers call a 'slingshot' which is supposed to occur near a tipping point (big move to come soon) in a wave progression. Let's .... lj
Ooooh. That setup worked and now we wait and see if the second part, which predicts a 'reasonably rapid' return to where it started from, occurs. An edger with the appropriate stop could have made from 14-16 points on that puppy providing he/she didn't bail on that 5 point retrace. lj
I spent entirely too much time yesterday over on the 'IR' thread chatting about this and that, so this post will be brief, but as always, extremely pithy (yes, I do have a lithp). A possible PA early AM chart. You can add trader's pivots and other stuff (Gann lines, Fibonacci's, EW counts, etc). The pure PA crew of course urinates on anyting (dat's right - 'ting') more than a bare-naked price chart (if that), keeping their secret sauce recipe to themselves (because it's soooo gooood). This is in fact is what I have on one of my screens first thing in the AM and then I feggedabowdit, in largest measure (the small measure is my 'secret sauce'). It is a chart of the 5 min ES, current contract. Legend: Lines: Blue = yesterdays ID High (H)/Low (L) Turquoise = ON H/L Brun = solid = yesterday's close (C); dashed = this AM's RTH open (O) Yellow = dashed = midnight; solid = RTH O Green circle thingies = swing H's. Red circle thingies = swing L's Sub-panels: Top = volume Middle = slow stoch (14,1,3) Bottom = fast stoch (5,2,3) Question o' the AM: How many PA and/or edger boyeez and girlz got whacked at the RTH O? You know, the BSD, 100 car crowd.
Each AM I get up early and run this vidi clip to get my mind right for the day ahead: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8Nf1MK7lts&feature=related An Iranian I once knew (I say once because if he went back there he's probably dead - but I don't know) said I was like a Sergeant Major - not quite a Drill Sergeant, but close. That was many years ago and hopefully things have changed, hopefully. There are discordant volume signals on all the ES time fractals that I use except the 60 min but the latter has the disadvantage of ending too early to give one a clean reading. YM is neutral. So then a (?quick) RTH lower low today for ES UNLESS ... please read prior posts. It's Tuesday AM a classic time for a reversal and thus also a prime opportunity to screw traders who are predicting it. Ave Pompeia, qui morituri sumus te salutamus. Bonne chance. lj
Partial quote: So then a (?quick) RTH lower low today for ES UNLESS ... please read prior posts. So, NOT a quick lower low but rather the 'UNLESS ...'. e.g., check the volume on the 5 min ES @ 10:05-10. the 15 min ES @ 10:00-15 and the 30 min ES @ 9:30-10:00 (cool). All > the discordant V (dV) from the RTH EOD of 7/28.08. As I have said before, if you start chasing dV's you will get screwed. Let the market come to you. For fun here's another one. It is unusual (1/33 observations of GOOG over a period of 2 1/2 years) for a gap up not to be closed [when the premarket H is first, is < the prior day RTH H and the intraday RTH is first] by EOD and 26/33 times the gap is closed before 10:35. Today's AM gap up isn't closed as of 11:20 AM EDT. The caveat mentioned above holds here (and for anything in the market for that matter). lj Edit: Ooottss. That would be 2 1/2 years.