Pepe's NT channel tool and I'm sure Spyder's TN channel tool give one the ability to draw stuff with microfine thickness. Similarly, over time I have drifted towards WGTrader's OHLC thickness. Sloppy scribing makes for sloppy thinking unt in this regard moi be probably more fanatical than Jacques. It comes from those years of putting lines on spectra. As a mechanist one learns to be ever so precise. One is not solving a problem after all. One is searching for truth. There is a difference. There is however more than one way to search for it. How did Newton come to appreciate gravity? It has been said here before and will be said now for the last time that Spyder and I are in 100% agreement concerning there being a unique, singular, one and only construct for what it is that we look at. Do the YM with this point in mind and I feel sure that you will see that what is going on is not dissimilar to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kliy32YWFcU&feature=related. It's Saturday and it's time to play. Again a clip from "Cool Hand Luke" in respect of what is and isn't possible: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNyl6gXLMLQ&feature=related. lj
Just a quick note on that last little fakeout. YM and ES complement each other with YM always leading even when it appears it isn't. So a check on the YM2 at 1:44 would have clearly shown fakeout not breakout (in this case breakdown). It's coming but not yet. BTW a very nice hinge on the fakeout turnaround. The ups and downs of the past few days are not surprising given the time of year and as well what has been happening recently with respect to highs unt lows. So when ES is making contract highs and YM isn't and furthermore has put in a contract low which ES hasn't responded to, one might expect some jumpiness here and there. My setup last PM was very similar to romanus' but je pense that had I looked more closely at the YM, this AM's unfolding might have been more apparent. Finally after plumbing the shallows of the CMEGS (CME-Globex Specific) time frame for the past 6 weeks, I would say that although some very useful info has been gleaned from this excursion, there is no doubt that it is the RFTH (Regular Futures Trading Hours) time frame which runs the show. Could anything be more obvious? It must be that volume thingy doo-dah but it's always worth noting at what time the CME-Globex highs and lows are made. Kind of like noting at what times the hourlies for the RFTH and CMEGS time frames are in synch. Where's that freakin' FTT? lj
Another point about yesterday's EOD read, looking just at the ES5, would be that the pace of the EOD IBV was rising, was much higher than the purported completion and was followed by DRV. lj
Please note that the comments of last evening were not meant to be disparaging to romanus, if only because I missed it first time around too. I remember a quip from Jack some time back about "... now that you have all these panels on your desktop, the next thing is to figure out what to do with them." Ho, ho. What a card, but he is right. Hence the exhortation for a routine. When looking for turns of consequence (that would be your FTT - BTW where is that FTT?) he has stated that the 2-pair phenom is what is happening and has explained what it entails many times. A pair is a Bbid/Bask pair and a 2-pair is just 'two' of these Bbid/Bask pairs. Until you see the phenomenon in action though, IMO, it remains mysterious. This AM I was looking very closely at the EOB for the 10 AM ES5 bar which was 2-pairing like crazy at that time. What didn't happen, was a downward extension - a spike (3 pairs down from the dominant [the 'extreme'] in the pair) before the bar completed. The next bar immediately moved outside (above the 'extreme') by 1 pair and then blew downwards (no 2-pairing observed) for 18 ticks before reversing back up. This is part of the 'expert' routine and although I am far from being an expert, it is still very useful to look for this stuff when your level of preparedness permits it. lj
An important week is coming up. Whatever one says about the markets, earnings matter, even cooked earnings. What matters even more this time around are projections. Check out the YM weekly and compare it to the ES weekly. It's the weekend. What better time to do this. ES is still short of a new contract low but made a major move in that direction this past week. If it does bottom out with YM then what? Having spent some time flailing about with the right side of things, am back to redoing the left, again. This time something along the lines of '... if there is nothing more going on to the right, then that probably has or will have something to do with what is going on to the left.' The FTT concept is so critical in this regard, which is to say, if you don't have a tape ftt, then what? Happy 4th and here's a little J. P. Sousa http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1sAzdf0n_0&feature=related lj Some people look at P and V, put them together and produce a shit cake which for the good of all, is best consumed by the creators.
We are 3 ticks above the prior ES contract low (see prior posts with all indications (the old volume leads price thingy and YM leads ES thingy) that a new low will be achieved. Interestingly, the upchannel leading into the CMEGS time frame dump was NOT of the type in which the RCL is an RTL. I do not see this very often (for whatever reasons) but in this case the rather 'thick' RTL and as well the repositioning of the major downtrend RTL several days ago, probably had something to do with it. Oh WTF. Let's say it was those two things plus the fulfillment of yet another developing Boolean construct which have occasioned the fall. What did Gordon Ghekko say, oh yeh, "Gaps are good". There are gaps for time frame reasons but there are also gaps which occur intra-session and when they occur during periods of high volume they are all the more interesting, moreso when approaching them from the direction opposite to the direction of the gap. Look at the pole extrema as a first indicator. lj Da eagles have landed. Now let's see what happens. I feel kind o' dweamy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlqOv-9qgLw
Monday points up if only for a while. A trace uptrend for YM but ES is showing more but both require a firm RTL. The weekly is stronger for YM though and isn't it just plus grand to have tomorrow's newpaper aujourd'hui. The flurry of volume offcionados is expected to peter out if only because the lack of perspicacity let alone discernment is palpably, painfully, apparent. There is only one correct conformation and the question is what is it. The paradigm of nested sandboxes is rigorous. Question de la semaine: Can the high pace bar of a trending move be the FTT? lj Not spoonful but nonetheless tasty: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCqLxanyYdw
Answer: No as it would violate the PV paradigm. We already know the answer when the question is applied to Point 2. Now ask the same question of a putative Point 3 or a bar confirming a putative Point 3. My current best guess is that the correct answer is highly contextual, i.e., it depends. We expect a deceleration of price after a high pace bar so, IMO, there must be other considerations aside from this. lj
Hmmm. YM just set a new contract low. What on earth caused this? Yes. The little boy with the red hair, freckles and a gleam in his eye. What do you think? "I'm not telling", said the little boy, "but it's really obvious." Well could you have predicted this? "I don't predict," said the little boy, "but I was ready for something". lj http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdHFxkd7s0s&feature=rec-HM-r2