lol really? I was hoping that we could toy with you a bit longer. We haven't had any special ppl like you since marketsurfer.
Option theory with a lot of assumptions. Over enough repetitions, you would be indifferent. Sellers will be profitable more frequently, but have a limited return - buyers will be profitable less frequently, but occasionally make buckets of money. Change the parameters - have a good volatility forecast - adjust skew to balance your inventory - a whole series of issues can skew the decision making. The theoretical value of an option is an indifference price for the given inputs. MMs make a ton off of very small profits - reversing the b/a and a ton leverage. Fully hedged MM can get enormous leverage. If you're going to do it once you have a bias - going to do it thousands of time and you become indifferent
Exactly. Options isn't the zero-sum game people make it out to be. People that buy them for insurance or hedging *expect* them to expire worthless, but want to have them around just in case. Their portfolio *benefits* from the option expiring worthless, because that means their primary strategy has worked out. If you write options, you provide that insurance.
Makes sense. I notice that a lot of the volume for SPX are for strikes ATM. Are these for leverage? I can picture far OTM strikes acting as insurance, but buying ATM strikes seems like a high price to pay for insurance.
@destriero - as usual, it's going to take me a while to parse what you wrote (usually resulting in a significant amount of learning, so it's not like I mind.) And thanks to a convo with @Wheezooo, I largely get how mark-to-market works - seeing this trade as a loss and the later trades I made as gains. What I don't get, other than as an accounting practice, is why I'd want to see it that way: without the position I was in as a result of those earlier trades, I couldn't have made those gains - right? I also recall a position you had on where the price moved against you, and you - um, "fixed" it. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/dests-everything-journal.332136/page-28#post-4931400 Not arguing with your assertion, but I don't understand the difference between repairing a trade gone bad and the above.
I never adjusted/repaired the initial fly. I stated I was down 2% on net liq due to the fly. I held it.
Then I've totally misunderstood what you were describing in that post. Pardon me while I go pound my head against the wall.