Advantage of looking at your trades as a Sequence vs one shots

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Aug 1, 2021.

  1. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    A couple of things...

    First, your example is not apples to apples.
    You have "One shot" trading 1000 shares, while "Experienced" is trading 500 shares.

    Lets equalize the number of shares at 500.
    The loss one shot incurs on the first attempt is $200. There are no changes to the "experienced" numbers.

    With that out of the way,

    The plan carried by "one shot"...

    500 x 22.6 = $11300
    Exit 500 @ 22.2 = $11100
    Gross loss = ($200)

    Now then if "one shot" takes the trade a second time, which is exactly what "experienced" did...

    500 x 22.6 = $11300

    Exit 500 @ 23.9 = $11950
    Profit = $650

    First attempt loss = ($200)

    Gross profit = $450


    The plan carried out by "experienced"...
    100 x 22.6 = $2260
    200 x 23.1 = $4620
    200 x 23.4 = $4680
    Total = $11560

    Exit 500 @23.9 = $11950
    Profit = $390

    First attempt loss = ($40)

    Gross profit = $350


    So the glaring take-away is...... wait for it...
    1) one shot used less capital and made more profit!!

    You might also want to rethink your use of "experienced trader" moniker when creating these scenarios.
     
    #31     Aug 8, 2021
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  2. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Good points, the main takeaway is, do you do single or multiple trades as your main trading strategy?

    There's many different ways to approach it. From what I've seen it makes more sense to do multiple trades with smaller risk per trade, vs one big trade.

    Seriously how many experienced day traders do 1 big trade per day only?

    In starting the thread I was expecting to see an intelligent discussion on how you all scale, re-enter and do multiple trades, like any experienced trader does.

    Not a debate re whether position sizing and scaling in and out is of merit. Sigh. Ask Any professional trader. Maybe I'm on the wrong forum lol.
     
    #32     Aug 8, 2021
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  3. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks


    1) This is a matter of semantics... when the first attempt trade was exited/stopped with a loss, it was one trade done. Your define of what is a trade may be different.

    2) The numbers have shown the capital being used is less, therefore by default, a 100% loss would be less risk! Elsewhere, I mentioned you are stuck on monetary value. In this case the first attempt loss of $200 is greater than the first attempt loss of $40. However, the execution is more of a determinant of the risk.

    3) Trade signals and triggers determine what trades are undertaken in a day.
     
    #33     Aug 8, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  4. deaddog

    deaddog

    Actually the subject is the advantages of sequences vs one shot. So far you haven't explained the advantages.

    You lose less when you're stopped out and make less on successful trades, however at the end of the day the one-shot (full position entry & exit) makes more money. Where is the advantage?
     
    #34     Aug 8, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  5. deaddog

    deaddog

    I can't help but wonder how "experienced trader" differs from "profitable trader" and "successful trader"?
     
    #35     Aug 8, 2021
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  6. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Big one shot trades also lose more money when they're wrong. Multiple entries are like hedging your bets and giving yourself more attempts to get winners.

    Law of large numbers.
     
    #36     Aug 8, 2021
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  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    I don't disagree. But using your own example the one shot trader makes more money.
     
    #37     Aug 8, 2021
    easymon1 likes this.
  8. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Last edited: Aug 8, 2021
    #38     Aug 8, 2021
  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    #39     Aug 8, 2021
  10. themickey

    themickey

    My experience as a stock trend trader.
    If trading small size, this allows for a greater number of opportunities and allows to grab more opportunities because of time. In other words, as time moves on you have more balls in play.
    This only works if you are very careful in selecting high probabilities. High probability being the market is bullish, the stock according to your criteria is the pick of a bunch, carefully screened.
    With time, holding a large portfolio of small sizes, it's easier to stay in the trade for longer because each individual risk is smaller.

    The markets over the years keep rising, the bias is upward, you can't profit from this if you are not in.
    Jumping in and out becomes tiresome, most stocks require time to work out.
    On drawdowns, these become opportunities to add to positions, not exiting on drawdowns but entering with incremental small positions.
     
    #40     Aug 8, 2021
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