adaptive moving average

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by travis, Jun 4, 2003.

  1. travis

    travis

    I looked carefully, but my problem is a very basic one - how do I turn a function into a signal? Excuse my ignorance.
     
    #11     Jun 5, 2003
  2. Splat

    Splat

    If you mean an entry or exit signal then you have to create a strategy. In TS2K you have to create a signal using powereditor and then add the signals into a strategy. In TS6/7 you have to
    create a strategy document and then add the signals code which
    calls the functions straight into the strategy.

    Look in the easylanguage help/documentation for more detailed info.
     
    #12     Jun 5, 2003
  3. I agree. However, you must remember that anything you buy by way of indicators or systems will as an immediate effect reduce your trading returns, while the possibility of boosting them using what you purchased by the amount invested is considerably much lower. Basically, the more you buy, the less you make.

    I looked at the Jurik tools website (btw: www.jurikres.com) -

    Looks a bit like snake oil. I don't mean to be derogatory, but having an amateurish website explaining loudly what snake oil is can easily be interpreted as reverse psychology to make you (the potential purchaser) think that they're not. This is more often than not the case.

    I only looked at the jurik sample charts for a few seconds and could see with my bare eyes that the 'smooth' indicators (JMA and the RSI replacement) are laggy. Further verification with a window (as a ruler on the screen) seemed to confirm that.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but if I have the choice between a late or a jagged signal, I'd take the jagged one any day. I don't need a 'smooth indicator' function. My brain does that for me.

    Anybody can create smoother indicators. Seriously. Anything from using OHLC/4 (instead of close bar) to simply increasing the periodicity (i.e. from 10 to 12) can do this for you.

    I think the latter is pretty much what jurik has done. The signal's smoother, but considerably later on the EMA/RSI substitutes.


    Anybody out there who thinks I'm wrong, please feel free to flame me.


    ~Scientist.
     
    #13     Jun 5, 2003
  4. travis

    travis

    Yes, so far so good - when I have the signal, I know how to use that for the strategy. But the problem is how do I turn the function into a signal?

    I know I have to read the manual, but it's easier for me to write 5 posts on a forum, than to find the place where the manual explains it.
     
    #14     Jun 5, 2003
  5. Splat

    Splat

    I think you have misunderstood. That is another reason you
    should go back to basics and read the manual.
    The function will return you a value based upon the inputs to the
    function, which is the length you are looking at for your moving
    average. It is then upto *you* to generate the signal using the
    Sell and Buy keywords to generate the signal based on your
    trading strategy (I am not referring to the tradestation strategy
    meaning here).
     
    #15     Jun 5, 2003
  6. Well, very few people can... Most lack discipline and flop out before they even take off. If you can't sit through a trade or sit on your hands, don't trade. But their worst mistake is that they buy so many hokuspokus indicators, systems & courses that they have no money left to buy stocks to train on. So their max out their account with futures. I know it sounds silly, but it amazes me how many people do it.
    Precisely. For example MESA is IMHO nothing but a load of B.S scientism to try to accurately explain or predict cycles. Nobody can. Can I repeat that? NOBODY.

    Now, this is the secret, folks (oh no - yes!) - Systems / software can simply not sure-fire predict cycles because markets have nothing to do with what makes sense. Markets don't go up or down because that's what they're worth. They move because of what people THINK. They're entirely about psychology. Because humans tend to be emotional rather than rational, they create opportunities of market extremes caused by greed/fear. This is what causes cycles. Nothing else.
    First - this is the reason why the 'efficient market theory' is complete nonsense. The markets are rarely efficient since they're not traded by computers but humans.
    Second - you can forget all about software now - Sit in front of a screen for a few days watching a volatile NASDAQ issue

    - Sit there until you get a feeling for how silly (emotional) traders are. They will keep selling when the price crashes. That's when I buy to relieve those poor fearful bunnies from their positions.(provided there's support near, anyway)

    -Then, for peculiar reasons, they will also keep buying(!) when the price skyrockets "overextends". That's when I blow my load into that greedy crowd. Sell while the trend is hot :D
    Often I sell double the position I bought, creating a straight stop-reverse with the same equity. This works both long and short.
    you so speak my language man. dog pile on the rabbit.
    nitro, U have my full respect - you're tha man. :cool:

    HAND
    ~Scientist
     
    #16     Jun 5, 2003
  7. travis

    travis

    Thank you, Splat, I worked on it, despite the formula which was not very friendly, and I made it happen. Profit has improved. Now I will look for a bunch of amas and try them all.
     
    #17     Jun 5, 2003
  8. CalTrader

    CalTrader Guest


    This is the voice of experience: take the advice. I've been in this game a long time as well and I can tell you that some very famous traders that I learned from used only simple charts that they reviewed each morning prior to the market open. They have done and continue to do very well.

    My two cents on systems: I use a handful of techniques which over time I have combined into a system of models that semi-automate my position decision making. They refllect my trading approach however and dont depend on overly expensive third party tools that require their own religion to use. The stuff I use was developed in-house over time. More automation only helps with the bottom line and is not truly necessary .....
     
    #18     Jun 5, 2003
  9. Guys, thanks very much for the great input. Nitro, words from you are very much appreciated, and help to validate certain directions I've been working in. Thanks very much.

    I have been taking a very minimal approach to things trading ES with just two charts, two timeframes, one MA in each, a $Tick and a 1 tick chart with b/a in it. I prefer simple too, and I would never toss cash at someone's fixall solution. I do however know a truly amazing trader/mentor who uses the JMA in a very simple capacity to pull an outstanding 20 pts/contract average per day. I'm sure it's completely a testament to his skill and not the product, but his recommendation was noteworthy to me. Alas, it is the trader, not the system. I'm sure of this.

    I don't think it's a good idea to discount all technology sign-unseen, nor do I think it's a good idea to hope for a miracle solution like so many I've seen pontificated on ET. I have so far absorbed that 101% of what's for sale is BS. So, in short, I agree and thanks for the heads up.

    Thanks guys and good trading!
     
    #19     Jun 5, 2003