Acrary's Strategy Formation

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by MustPlayOptions, Jan 16, 2007.

  1. minmike

    minmike

    Please don't anyone take this as speaking for acrary because I'm certainly not qualified, but

    I All of the statistics work that acrary did seemd to assume a random distribution of trades. Not everyone has this. If that assumption holds, you are correct to assume that you will get approxamitly 2 streaks of 5 loses in that situation. (Remember as size goes up the probability of weird streaks increases.)

    II In Acrarys other stuff, he goes over how multiple uncorrelated systems reduce losses/increase stability. Just back test the two systems togehter and see what the results would look like and use them together. calculate the same as above. Not sure how to make it more elegant, but should do the trick.

    III not sure the exact math behind this, but my guess is at least on peroid to get back the loss, the other two for room for error in having losses in those periods.

    Hope that helps. That is my understandings, if anyone has another view that would be great.
     
    #11     Jan 23, 2007
  2. billp

    billp

    Wondering if anyone actually tried to use Acrary's strategies? He seems to be a very smart guy but alas no longer post here.
     
    #12     Jan 25, 2007
  3. Trustme

    Trustme


    I think he retired from active trading. He didn't blow up his account.
     
    #13     Jan 25, 2007
  4. minmike

    minmike

    I have used some of his stuff on combining strategies. Not as rigorously as de did, but using the same ideas.
     
    #14     Jan 25, 2007