Acrary is a genius!

Hi Alan,

I'm a relatively young, trader-to-be that's trying to save the time you suggest might be possible based on your latest revelations. If you can find a minute, I would really appreciate some answers to the following:

1) Do you trade the trend and countertrend/chop models at the same time or do you use a classification model to determine when each is appropriate? Some of your posts seem to indicate you do both at the same time and the performance of both smooth the equity curve. Earlier (but recent) posts of yours suggest that you focus on the benefits of trading both trend and countertrend systems to smooth the equity curve and help compound. I suppose I'm simply tripped up as to whether these methods are always active since you've stated that your current "edgeless" approach requires no form of prediction. Would you be so kind as to elaborate a bit on this?

2) Sounds like you've ultimately determined that classification is easier and nearly as effective as edge-trading. This statement alone leads me to believe that there you are using a model to determine which methodologies are more appropriate for a given time. Any hints as to how you determine classification?

3) I'm a bit confused by the edge versus non-edge thing. My assumption is that edgeless trading simply suggests trading observable patterns in price that may work for periods but all in all may be no better than random in the long run? Whereas edge trading insinuates trading some objective character of the market, usually found behind price. Is this a correct differentiation?

4) How can I piece this all togther? My current interpretation is that you are now currently:

a) Not relying on something behind the scenes that moves price as you did before, but price itself which is easier to come by
b) Using some form of prediction model to determine the trendiness or lack thereof for a particular market, then deciding which edgeless price model to use at that time for a period
c) Trading trend, countertrend, or chop models on what Doron or some other system determines for you in terms of market classification. Is this way off base?
d) Or, do all models trade at once and classification is used for something else?

Thank you very much for your time,

D

 

This is true on ET but there is useful, intelligent idea fermentation elsewhere on the Internet.

I for one can state that adding edge or complexity has the reverse effect from others and results in an increase of 10 to 18% in Win/Loss ratio in gross dollars in Forex.

 

so acrary says there are times when the market is non random at times and someone else (who may be marketsurfer - says how is the truck driving business.

I can not believe how religious random market guys are. These are generally the guys who think they are scientists but they are not really because they are far to opinionated.

Frankly I do not care what the random guys say - because my trading and the trading over dozens of people in llc proved otherwise. It is no longer as easy as it was.... but I know the market is far from random.

 

Are you just jealous?

 

Jerry, you are asking the wrong questions. W/L ratio is meaningful when you look at a single system, not the system of systems. Furthermore, it's not directly related to consistency. I believe acrary tries to keep yearly return to max drawdown ratio at least 10:1.

The most interesting thing here is that non-edge systems can be consistently profitable, that it is all doable using market character based systems (though I might be wrong here).

 

good trading systems doesnt changed

 

Statistics are like ice cream flavors...goodness dependent on the taste of the trader, so 10/1 is a fine flavor. This gives some objectivity to the discussion...thanks.

 

For you this is, in all probability, a passing event. It is not believable and there is no way you can coonect the observable market's continuing off to any means of operational extraction.

If you can reflect on just looking at what is going on in markets and compare it to the range of numbers used in the list of measures jerry030 posted; you see what the market does does not fit into the normal (normal meaning how jerry et al operate) range of these measures. the measures that are conventional used and their proferred values for comparison do not quantify the performa of what acrary is speaking of.

He spoke of 200% a year by a applying 1.75% of capital. We who use non edge continuous and parrallel nested fractal and their singular pattern, accually put money in the markets up to or at the capacity of the markets. We also compound it.

This is a narrow response limied to the context you established from an interpretation. Shooting the messenger is commonly done with a response such as mine. I did not post the patterns and how the patterns are integral fractal to fractal since that is not in the ball park for you.

Acrary is not speakingabout using the conventional financial industry's orientation to take signals from the market's operation. Your screens probably cannot be used to opbtine the signals presently.

 

OK, but something like 10:1 doesn't tell much about system impact on capital. It’s very easy to develop a system or group of systems that trade in that way but if they only trade once every 1000 bars they will have limited impact on the wealth of the trader.

A much more useful metric is total account capital doubling time as this takes into account commission, slippage, reserve capital beyond margin, wins losses and everything else.

 

Jack,

I don't want to deride this thread, but I suppose I need to play it as it lays; in this thread.

I'm new to this realm, relatively speaking so I haven't come to many conclusions as your words seem to suggest. While it doesn't seem unreasonable that the market is composed of fractals, I have no current basis (other than your word) to take this and their relationships as truth. That said, I've never heard acrary mention fractals so I'm not immediately convinced he and you are on the same page. Maybe he will clarify? If you both, or anyone else on ET that's profitable are trading the one universal truth you refer to, it is very clear that you communicate it via extremely different means. I suppose what I'm saying is: While I have no doubt that acrary has discovered some powerful things, I have no reason at the moment to believe they are those same things you live by.

While I'm new enough, and perhaps naive enough to consider a great many things at this point in the game, your posts always seem to imply, albeit indirectly, that there is only one way that the market operates. Assuming you are correct in this assertion, is it safe to assume that anyone not using your methods can't be profitable consistently? If they can, how do they manage this by way of these simple truths you speak of escaping them? Is it that they are using said universal truths without even realizing it? I'll consider it a possibility for discussion's sake.

It's your interpretation that acrary concurrently trades his models so perhaps you can opine as to why he has the need for a classification of general market theme model?

What market variables are you referring to use in place of an edge or price?

You've stated in the past that there is no reason to hide anything in the markets since you've never seen anything useful by your standard get gamed by too many knowing of or operating it. If that is so, how about a nice step by step post explaining a bit of clearly written theory followed by color-by-numbers examples of what it is that you do precisely? If it's real and it works, then this should be easily demonstrable, correct? Would you be willing to do this? I can connect dots with clear instructions. If you choose to insinuate that this will remain above my head, please at least say so in clear enough terms that I can properly defend myself.

What belief system is it that you are so convinced that I have? We've gone back and forth about the whole conventional wisdom thing. If I were entrenched in CW as you assert then I wouldn't be trying to be a trader. I would "know better" and realize it wasn't worth the effort. I believe some of my early harsh comments in my first thread left a strong impression. CW is all I knew to come in with, but I intend to leave here making money whether that's any consequence of ET or not. If you, acrary or anyone here shows me something worthy of consideration, I will take it seriously. You demonstrate something that clearly works and is axiomatic and there is nothing left to fight. Show me, show us all. For those who may think to remind me, I know that no one owes me anything. All I can do is ask. I am asking....

You spend a great deal of time telling others what they are doing incorrectly and perhaps more time stating what others could be doing correctly, but not in a way that allows them to correct their mistakes. You may not intend to (I'll provide benefit of doubt) but your posts often reek of elitism. You either believe we can't learn(ridiculous), don't want us to learn (intended obfuscation, after all, some would say we are your competition. I know, not you though), or are just flexing your presumed intellect in poorly chosen prose for your own edification on this site. If you choose to speak in code, you must expect others to question you, your intent, or your goods. Once more, show me something I can act on 5 minutes from now, and I may just surprise you.

D