Acid Test of Mr. Market Market Madness

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ShoeshineBoy, Mar 2, 2004.

  1. yes..I will always keep between a band of 10 - 14 stocks as I don't need more than 14 to be properly diversified against non-systematic risk.

    Yes...I will always be able to find great stocks, in any market condition. I've been using this model since 1990 and have beaten the market each and every year since then.
    #21     Mar 3, 2004
  2. gms


    So the answer to my question then is that your capital is divided up per investment "stream", rolling over and compounding the capital from trade to trade as profit targets are met and trades exited, but if the stream is currently in a position where the target has not been met, and a new opportunity arises, then another segment of your divided capital is used for that new trade, which becomes the next stream. And you have about 10 to 14 such streams going, you say.

    When I review the streams I based on your trade execution dates from last November, I too similarly see 14 streams of capital. The first trade date of the first stream was 1/3/2002, the first trade date of the 14th and final stream was 9/29/03. The other first trade dates of the rest of the 12 streams are strewn throughout that time period.

    So your method of apportioning capital has portions of your capital not working with your quantitative model for parts of up to one and three-quarter years?
    #22     Mar 3, 2004
  3. It is kind of hard to be taken seriously when you present yourself as a gluttonous vainglorious narcissistic clown.

    Almost everyone of us places a premium on ideas. That's what a good stock board does. You have sort of polluted this model by your own focus on your body and your appetites.

    My advice, if your skills are really good, get small, then you will get huge.

    PS Ever find that RT place?
    #23     Mar 3, 2004

  4. Thanks for the advice.

    #24     Mar 3, 2004
  5. If I arbitrarily start out with a $124,000 account with your trades on 1/1/2002 and then just roll in and out of the trades as you suggested, I end up with $202,000 two years later. That's a 62% increase which is good of course.

    But, again, I think you could do downright stellar with a lower thread approach. This of course entails more risk. (And of course a time stop can only help in my opinion.)

    (Note: I assumed $10,000 invested on every stock which only approximates how I assume you'd really invest. You would have been out of capital on 5/27/03.)

    I've att'd the workbook to show what I did...
    #25     Mar 3, 2004
  6. So your spread sheet shows that he is holding a few stocks right now. Those starting with PTSI and going down to IPAR. Kinda looks like he enters with 10K for each pick, maybe.

    It looks like he has 80,000 bucks idle now the way you made up the spread sheet.

    Several people ran his stuff in past times and get differing results.

    Personally i have spread sheets where I just rotated the available capital through whatever streams were necessary and added capital when the operation added a new buy and there was no stream to put the buy into cause all capital was tied up. I let the sale of a prior stock be the initial capital that would go into the new pick.

    On one of his restarts, he used 15 streams to restart the portfolio.

    right now we have a neatsituation the way you did it. idle capital and 13 stocks in the portfolio. MM thinks you are a cool guy. your spread sheet is a goofy one in my opinion.

    No one can assess what MM does really. So no record can be constructed.

    My guess with you end of FEB spreadsheet is that he cannot maintain a schedule of three sales and three purchases a week to maintain his targetted 4 to 6 week hold on 14 streams.

    After start up capital was invested and if a person rolled over profits as long as they were produced using the MM record, when do you think the portfolio would have needed the last injection of capital and when do you think this portfolio would stagnate after that last injection of capital.

    Right now there are three active streams of capital and 10 dead ducks on the list. In the past several dead ducks have almost made it then faded. Right now, he has to make a pick about every three weeks at this level of crippling (3/14 active).

    See what you can do to complete a roll over of capital spread sheet using the minimum number of streams actually created in the past. MM tells you he just made picks to get up to 14 streams as he chose. In fact, what it looks like is that the operation clogged up with dead ducks repeatedly and he added new capital at that time to cover his ass with each new pick. when he got to 15 streams in the jounal here, he had by then restarted the stuff as the potfolio scribe stated.

    So far with 14 streams he has gotten it down now to only three active streams not showing losses. Will these three crap out too?
    #26     Mar 3, 2004
  7. #27     Mar 3, 2004
  8. Equity curve.

    For laughs try making a curve that you can apply a first derivative to to find out his maximum money velocity and compare it to the planned money velocity his paradigm suggests.
    #28     Mar 3, 2004