I more or less hope Romney wins, but holy moly, picking a winner this early? Can't be done IMO. Too much left to unfold, especially given how much money rides on the election these days. All these polls and predictions are like pundits calling on the closing price of FB before she even opens.
Robert D Novak used to run his own polls, and according to his memoir, he was pretty darn accurate. When he first began reporting, he was literally out on the street and knocking on doors to get data. I wonder what advice Novak would give Romney today? Probably to hit hard on the "you didn't build that" staatement. He would probably also tell him to release those tax returns and get them out of the way. I think Romney can win, but only if he uses attack ads. He's got to attack. If he campaigns like McCain did in the last election, he will lose.
UPDATE: An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election. According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win. The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change. âWe continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,â Bickers said. âOther published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.â http://www.colorado.edu/news/releas...ting-model-still-points-romney-win-university
330 - 208 ??? The model is very suspect. It's true that the polls aren't completely accurate at this stage (or ever), but it is all but mathematically impossible for Romney to put together 330. Mitt would have to sweep every battleground state AND swing PA, WI, and MI which polls would indicate is a daunting task. All are currently +8% for Obama which make sampling error an implausible excuse. I think Romney will make some headway when focusing on coal and oil in PA and WI because the jobs market there has been restricted by Obama's opposition to coal and fracking. Coal is big business in PA and frack sand is providing a boom for places in WI. But Obama remains popular in densely populated areas like Philly, which make it very unlikely that he will lose there, even if it's close. If Romney wins, it will be because he wins; FL OH NC VA And then goes on to win at least one of the following; NV CO IA That puts the only realistic Romney win between 272 and 275. Not a big win, but enough to count. Personally I think that NC is in the bag for Romney. VA is very likely to go GOP this year simply because of the economy, and FL for the same reason. OH is only possible with another strong debate and an organized ground game. Assuming he wins those, I would guess that he wins CO, but there is an argument to be made for NV between the horrible economy there and the fact that there are something like 1 million Mormons who are very politically active. But I think that is probably offset by the growth in minority population. In any case, I'm very suspicious of any study that predicts anything more than a 15 point win for Romney under current circumstances.
I think there is more discouragement out there with Obama then the polls are reflecting. Romney is running away with independents. The oversampling of Democrats in almost every poll is giving liberals a false confidence. If Romney doesn't have a major gaff this could be a blowout election, IMHO. I'm still waiting for Obama's October surprise but the pollsters may be doing the democrat oversampling on purpose so his supporters don't see how bad he's really doing and don't pressure him to make something happen.
Look at the recent post-debate polls in OH, VA, etc. they have Romney tied and many of them did not over sample dems.
Look at the "we ask America" polls that show Romney with a slight lead since debate. They are baking in MORE GOP voters than dems, especially in FL. I would argue that is actually over-sampling republicans slightly. The PPP poll in WI has Obama +2 with an equal sampling of GOP, dem, and indie. That is the case with most recent polls. They were heavily over sampling dems until a couple weeks ago. Not so this past several days. This is likely to be so close that I wouldn't surprised if it comes down to recounts in FL, VA, and OH
We Ask America Oct 5 does oversample Republicans slightly In FL and VA but oversamples Democrats in Ohio. They show Romney ahead in all three by 3%, 3% and 1% respectively. I don't see the independent voter breakdowns for those polls. http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/05/boing/ The Pew poll released today shows Romney up by 2% with Independents. http://www.people-press.org/obama-romney-voter-preferences/ A new Battleground Poll today shows Romney up 16% with Independents. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/08/Battleground-Romney-Crushing-Obama-Indies Other polling organizations that do show percentage votes in Dem, Rep, and Ind. I've seen over the weeks show Romney polling much stronger than Obama with Independents. And, nearly all oversample Dems. If you have others from reputable polling organizations you say are showing otherwise, post a link.