Well we kinda already edited it in Stoney's thread. He got in at $81 and I told him not to. $10/gallon gasoline or at least the very chance of it changes everything. The company's dirt cheap down here and I'd be buying in a second if it weren't for that. It did make it to $90 though. Almost. $89.60 I dipped out at $84.50. Any resolution in fuel prices, buy it like a madman.
I stand by - don’t buy stocks in stage 4 downtrends. It’s standing in front of a speeding train. Oil prices have been elevated for a while. Narratives are exactly that.
The threat of oil prices reaching $8-$10. See how it bounced off of $66 the other day to close at $68? No other stock did that. It's not getting much cheaper. Simple as that. Unless we get $8 unleaded, then the multiple might contract a little more. Btw... where does this silly stage 4 downtrend show the bottom? Zero? $50? Undefined? I mean tell me the bottom then, because we sure as hell nailed $90 didn't we? Or is that 20% bounce off of $75 a secret subsection of a stage 4 downtrend? So tell me the bottom.
I don’t pick bottoms. That’s guessing. And when stocks are in free fall, they don’t V bottom. They need to find new buyers, and it’s a process that take time. The market needs bag holders though.
It's down 32% ytd. So is AMZN So is Disney Ford is down 39% GM is down 39% Target 32% FB 41% NFLX 69% HD 30% Toll Brothers 34% Levi's 33% Consumer discretionary>>> the whole sector is down 29% ytd. Wheres the bottom on all these stage 4's? They just go to zero or perhaps the company steps in and buys their own shares when it gets cheap enough. Last I looked THO had a $250 MM buyback in place for 2022 alone. Does this "narrative" not put a floor under a stock... or does the ceo just say f-it... we're in a stage 4.... close up shop. Dude... a chart's all well and good... but a business is a business. They reach a point where they are too cheap not to buy. Get a clue. The real world is not charts. We are in a bear market though. So stage 4 that while you're at it. All stocks go down.
No one is fighting the tape. I rode it up to almost $85 and dumped it. We're in a bear market. I knew it was going to $70 again. I told several members here not to touch it. I wrote maybe even lower. But right now, $65's a pretty solid floor with a buyback in place, a PE of 3, a nice dividend, and a $17B backlog. Fight the tape... pfff... gimmee a break. Its called experience and having been in this game for 30 plus years as a non-professional... pro. Knowing when a stock is too cheap is how you make make money for the long haul. You may not catch the perfect bottom, but in the end, time works its magic.
Van With all due respect, do you completely ignore the charts and trade strictly on the fundy's? A quick look at the 5 year weekly chart shows a definite down trend. I have no idea where it will end but I wouldn't buy the stock until it breaks the down trend. Now I know you called for 90 before 60 and it almost got there. But if you called for 90, where would you get out? Do you ride it all the way down? It's a great company and I'm sure it won't go out of business. My concern is it could stay undervalued for some time and tie up my capital. I'm a speculator , not an investor and I need my capital in case something comes up.
This industry is tempting, but their recent earnings are a complete aberration due to a pandemic "bubble" in RV'ing. Finviz shows THOR projected EPS next Y -33.55% - and that seems incredibly generous. It's just hard to get excited over this industry, pricing seems rich.
No of course not. Especially short term. Trading is one thing and long term investing is another. I'm a chart trading machine. And you do make a good point. In fact I just logged on to give @treeman a little respect, because right now I wouldn't touch this stock in this environment. Buyback and backlog aside, it would not surprise me one iota if they came out tomorrow and pulled a SNAP (ie, downward revisions) Pfff, I'd say it's almost a given. This is probably the worst type of company to own in a pending recessionary environment. Throw in the possibility of $8/gallon gas as China starts firing on a few more cylinders and energy supplies dwindle even more, and you have a recipe for disaster selling RV's. And let's not forget commodity costs too. I got out at $84.50, I thought I told you that in the other post, but either way, I knew it had come too far too fast. It overshot to $89.60, and since then its been heading back down. What you mention above about tying up capital for too long is actually 100% spot on. If I were managing a small value fund and I wanted to own say 100K shares of this @ $70, I would take that $7MM, divide it by 18, and use the roughly $400K to buy however many shares it gets me buying on the same day each month for the next 18 months. And in light of where we are macro-wise, I wouldn't start buying until $65. That would commence the month #1 of 18 buys. If the macro remained the same and this thing broke $77 again, I'd quit buying. My top would be somewhere around there. So this stock may go below $60, especially if they revise revenue and earnings. But as I pointed out above, there are dozens and dozens and dozens of stocks out there that exhibit the same chart pattern. You DON'T fight the tape, and you don't fight the Fed. @treeman is right. You've read my other posts, you know my thoughts on the bigger picture of things. We're heading for hard times, even if Putin were to get shot tomorrow, it's gonna take at least 18 months to dig our way out of this hole and return to solid gdp growth. One thing, speaking of Putin in case I didn't mention it in this thread... Thor has like 7 RV manufacturing facilities in Europe. When Hurricane Katrina hit, whatever govt agency it was, bought over 75,000 trailers to provide temporary housing. (Those trailers were poisonous lol, but that's another story. The wood in them or something. Must have been from Lumber Liquidators. Who remembers LL? Ted? We cleaned up. Short then long.) Point being, that was only one city. What's gonna happen when 5MM plus refugees head back home, to no home? Yeah. As the largest RV/Trailer manufacturer in the world and as a GSA preferred contractor, and with Congress sending billions in aid like there's no tomorrow... my hunch is Thor is gonna get some big, BIG orders, when that day comes.