Alas, the Aussie-Yen didn't quite make it. Nonetheless, I take the fact that I am profitable over the last 50 trades, even with all the experimentation I've been doing, as a good sign. Now that everything has reached a state where I have no inclination to mess with any of it, its time to contact Aarav in India and see what happens when we try implementing these tactics in an actual funded account.
If the two longer measures do not confirm, the 40-minute baseline might have merely detected a temporary pullback. (Be wary!)
What I am pasting below does not say anything about the success of the strategy described above, which remains a legitimate approach to day trading. However, the following is a more straightforward and well-documented method of day trading binary options profitably. As it turns out, it's actually true that you never want to be trading against the 20-minute baseline. But, this is in conjunction with the 20-minute baseline confirming the direction of the 12-minute baseline. If the 12-minute baseline is sloping in opposition to the 20-minute measure, the slower moving average does not rule! It means you need to exit your position if already in one, or refrain from trading altogether until the two measures are back in alignment. In the ideal scenario, these two measures will also be in agreement with the (slower) 40- and 60-minute baselines. However, when it comes right down to it, not even the 12- and 20-minute baselines have the final say as when to enter positions. This role belongs to even faster moving averages, which will at times also dictate when to exit positions. The trigger for executing (entering) trades is when the candlesticks pop out above or below the 2-minute to 8-minute moving averages (as appropriate). Trades might be exited as early as the occurrence of a contrarian hook or hinge in the two minute baseline. Another possibility is when candlesticks move in a contrarian direction to entangle themselves in the 2- to 8-minute measures. And finally, Positions MUST be exited (if not abandoned earlier) as soon as traders see a contrarian hook or hinge in the 12-minute baseline.
Thursday | February 9, 2023 Nothing more to do here except find out at what hour Deriv opens shop at the beginning of each week. (This culminating configuration lets me know when to buy, when to sell and when to take profit...)
Friday | February 17, 2023 It's been about a week since I modified or added to my collection of charts, and I wasn't planning to do so at all anymore. Yet a couple of days ago, I got an idea for an alternative forecast model that I just HAD to try out. It won't REPLACE any of the others, but I DO like it, and will therefore add it to my "arsenal." If one studies it carefully, it might provide insight as to why I think trading profitably (for me, at least) is as much about knowing where to enter positions and where to exit with profit as it is about knowing the direction of the dominant trend.
Monday | February 20, 2023 Because the 25-minute (Indian-red) projected low and 25-minute (steel blue) projected high (i.e., the 25-minute dynamic/adaptive price range envelope) appeared to offer reliable suggestions as to the limits to which price might be willing to pull back away from the direction of the slope of the (dashed yellow-green) 60-minute baseline on a five-minute chart (as illustrated by the circled areas below) I transposed these measures onto the "latest final version" of my one-minute charts. I regard any baseline that is faster than eight minutes as fluctuating and therefore unfit to be trusted to convey anything but the most immediate direction of price action, with the moving average cross of the two-minute baseline and the "special" 3-minute baseline being of particular interest... For confirmation of the direction of the fastest actionable intraday "trend," I look to the eight-, eleven and 13-minute baselines. Beyond that, I am primarily looking to trade in the direction of the 60-minute price flow, with entries and exits dictated not only by the direction of the slope of the 60-, 30- 15- and five-minute (adaptable/dynamic) price range envelopes, but JUST as importantly, by the location WHERE price is situation within the overall expanse or RANGE of these measures.
The above is my favorite chart, but all the histograms eat up too much memory and once the markets go live, the profile with all my pre-configured forecast models takes "forever" to open...literally...they never appear, no matter how long I wait. Consequently, I had to get rid of all the histograms and replace my proprietary indicators with the closest approximating standard substitutes.
Wednesday | February 22, 2023 At Narrowgate Trading we're now viewing the 2- through 6-hour baselines as reflecting the "gist" of where the intraday trend wants to flow (not pictured below), and we're using the newly coded indicator from last week to forecast our projected price range for hourly candlesticks...
Friday | February 27, 2023 The highlighted (yellow) regions display the same time period on my slow, intermediate and fast chart setups, which helps me pinpoint optimal entry and exit levels by getting the overall picture at the macro level while also drilling down to see what's happening from more of a micro context. Each of the charts helps confirm/clarify what's happening on the other two.