Abk

will release a press release today saying that their exposure to lehman is minimal

interesting to see how stock price will react

 

when is press release, was it today, if so I missed it.

 

Ambac Confirms Limited Direct Exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. and its Subsidiaries

NEW YORK, September 16, 2008 -- Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today confirmed that it has limited direct exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries (“Lehman”).

Ambac’s direct exposure to Lehman is limited to six interest rate and currency swap transactions where Lehman is the swap counterparty. Ambac has an insignificant net current payable balance, to Lehman. Ambac is exploring contract termination options to mitigate against any future credit risk to Lehman.

Ambac has no direct Lehman exposure in its financial guarantee or financial services investment portfolios. In addition, Ambac has no financial guaranty or CDS obligations related to Lehman. Ambac has reinsured surety exposure covering operational risk of lost or missing customer assets, not market value declines, at several broker-dealers, including Lehman Brothers, with a maximum aggregate exposure of $137 million. Ambac is not aware of any lost or missing customer assets at this time.

Ambac has indirect exposure to Lehman in two ways:

1. Ambac’s Financial Services business has approximately $1.3 billion in outstanding GICs backing Credit Linked Notes where Lehman is the CDS counterparty to the transaction. A Failure to Pay or Bankruptcy by Lehman could result in an Event of Default in these transactions, an early termination of the GIC and a return of the deposited monies at par. As previously announced, the State of Wisconsin, Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, has approved up to $1.0 billion in future intercompany asset sales between Ambac Assurance Corp. and Ambac's Financial Services business, which will enhance the liquidity within the Financial Services business.
2. Ambac also has exposure to structured and municipal transactions where the issuer may have entered into a swap or a GIC with Lehman as a counterparty. In these cases, Ambac does not insure Lehman’s performance under these swap or GIC transactions. Non-performance by Lehman may result in a financial impact on the issuer or transaction as it seeks to replace Lehman or seeks to collateralize Lehman’s position.

In addition to these exposures, Lehman has various operating roles such as servicer or auction agent in several transactions insured by Ambac. Lehman also provides a limited number of revolving credit facilities which are available to issuers under certain Ambac insured commercial asset-backed transactions. Ambac does not expect any significant credit impact, to its insured transactions, of Lehman’s inability to perform these activities. Ambac will evaluate each of these situations and work with the issuers to facilitate a transfer of these roles if appropriate.

 

Ive been long ABK since 1.37. I think they might take a hit on the GICs from Lehman but with fair value accounting they could have another record earnings in october. I am kinda kicking myself for not selling at $10 though.

opinions welcome

 

congrats on getting in at 1.37, great move. I probably would have sold out even sooner than $10. What were you waiting for? You already had a 1000% increase.

you really believe that they'll have record earnings next quarter? i hope youre right. its a tempting buy at the $5 mark i think. connie lee may start writing new business in october-november from what i hear. problem is that its such a volatile stock and so heavily traded that its extremely difficult to know where it will go.

 

For some reason I talked myself into believing it will go to 20 or 30. I still think that but we need the AAA and Connie Lee for another major move. I had my finger on the sell button all day yesterday but Im still waiting to see what happens.

I also have a feeling some business might roll down from AIG but Ill believe it when I see it.

I feel like Im sitting on a fence in the middle of a hurricane right now with ABK

 

I'm not sure if there will be a press release on this but their exposure to AIG is under $1 billion.

from what i hear, thats supposedly better than what some people thought. its beyond me to guess how that may affect the stock though.