I read a transcript in which Mark Fisher (himself) states that "The ACD system does not work well on Index Futures". He went on to say that, in his opinion, nothing that makes any sense will work on Index Futures (paraphrasing). I haven't read the book in quite awhile but I think he talks about this in the book, also. I have found this strategy works really well with certain stocks. (i.e. Lower volatility, lower volume, big name companies in peculiar.) The trick to using someone else's strategy, especially one that everyone knows about, is making it your own. Step outside of what you read in the book and explore the strategy in a way that fits your particular style of trading. You'll never be profitable with a strategy until you've made it your own. P.S. I can't find the link to the transcript; but if I find it I'll post it.
Here is a link to chapter 1 of Fisher's book. http://mbfcc.com/book/LogicalTraderExcerptChapterOne.pdf gotta_trade
Friday was a good day for ACD's "Good News/Bad Action" Setup to Short the Market. Market Gapped Up Pre-Market on Good Unemployment Report. CNBC Reporters were all smiling and bringing in talking heads telling the public how good the Unemployment Report is to economy. The Ironic thing is that CNBC was calling the Unemployment Numbers as the "Goldilock" Numbers. They were referring to the "Goldilock and the 3 Bears". The employment number was strong but not too strong. It was just right, so it was good for the market. We all know that the story of "Goldilock and the 3 Bears" is a fairy tale. hmmm, is CNBC telling the public a Fairy Tale this morning ? Gee whiz, should I buy the market based on a Fairy Tale. The second warning signal came at 9:30am when President Bush came on TV to tell the public how good the Unemployment Report and the Economy is. This is unusual event. Typically, it would be Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao who would comment about the Unemployment Report and not President Bush. Alarm Bells should be ringing now in ACD Trader's head about the the market rally. When the market opens up and it begins to sell off shortly after the open, that was all it was needed for ACD traders to act. Sell the crap out of it. ACD's "Good News/Bad Action" Setup was there for all to see. P.S. Does anyone know if there is a Moderator led chatroom that trades ACD Methodolgy ?
Does anyone know how to precisely calculate the A's and C's. I have read somewhere that on the ES the A is 22% of the 30day ATR but nothing about C's
Because it works and nobody is going to just give it away. There are certain stocks/instruments for which it works better - and you shouldn't expect to see that advertised, either. Trading is hard work wherein success if often achieved through failure.
The question was not why this system cannot be publicized (it is anyway, by the way). The question was why it cannot be quantified, as many on this thread have claimed.
I'm telling you it can. Fisher gave away a great system. But, he left out important specifics. It can be quantified if you learn the particular instruments in question. You simply need to define the volatility triggers of the A and C points for yourself. I'm certainly not going to tell you what they are for the instruments to which I apply the ACD system. Granted, I doubt it would matter on a medium such as this, but it's bad trade karma as far as I'm concerned.
================= Usually dont wait 5 months to reply, but you had a good point on disbelieving CNBC earlier this forum also January [3,4th]strong seasonals could help also; comtrasted with usually weaker this month
Hey Pumper, Don't get your panties in a bunch. I'm sorry if a simple question was too threatening to you. I can tell by your post that you have a lot of frustration with losing money. I'm also very good at calling entry and exit points at the end of the day. Good Luck!