After yesterday's late day "C Up" setup, ES is up +6.50 and NQ is up +16.50 so far today. Most people would have problem going long and staying long after such a run up yesterday, but ACD's "C Up" would've given you the confidence to go long and stay long.
Winsum, good observation. From the book, the only thing I didn't really model was the late-day C-Up/Down. Your right, it was basically being a daytrader mentality and adversion to holding overnight. I'll revisit and thanks for the reminder. I'm still suspect of the A Up/Dn intraday. Even Fischer say's it's only a small house advantage of 54/46 percent. With serious curve fitting, couldn't get to that point. You using any of these methods? --jeff
Yes, using some. The mechanics of A Up/Dn is not as important as the trading psychology behind Fisher's setup. On the surface the mechanics of a C Up would look like buy the high which is what amateurs would do when they chase a trade. However, Fisher explains the subtle difference of his C Up method. It is not buy the high. It is yelling fire and charging people $1, $2, $5... $10 for them to get out the door.
There was another A down followed by C up today. I stopped out on the A , but rode up nicely on the C. Before learning ACD, and better understanding support/resistance levels and pivots, my charts looked like something out of a voodoo ritual: bollinger bands, trendlines, MACD, stochastics and misc. oscilators saturated my monitor till there were no pixels left. I always chased the foolish, endless path of finding the right graphical pattern, or as I call it "chart JUJU". After a long struggle something clicked and I realized all that really mattered was PRICE.
If you don't mind me asking, how did you ride the up nicely on the C today? If you take the first 15 mins. You went short a bit below the first 15 mins. Then you stopped out at the high of the 15 mins. Then you went Long, you have a small gain which didn't even make up for your short stop out. Looks like a bad day for ES and some gain for NQ.
SLD 10 NQ false MAR06 Futures 1730.00 USD GLOBEX 20060106 9:41:15 BOT 10 NQ false MAR06 Futures 1735.00 USD GLOBEX 20060106 12:02:23 BOT 10 NQ false MAR06 Futures 1735.00 USD GLOBEX 20060106 12:09:53 SLD 10 NQ false MAR06 Futures 1749.50 USD GLOBEX 20060106 14:18:13 I would normally hold the C-up overnight except on Fridays or before holiday. You shouldn't be guessing someone's stop or entry, its not possible on ACD, which is a concept rather than a system. The "a-up" "c-up" and vice versa vary between instruments and change over time, as do the opening range timeframes. Obviously it was the NQ, so why would you waste your time making a snippy passive-agressive comment? Its sad to see there are so many creeps on this site playing trade rentacops.
Don't be so sensitive. Postings are generally the worst kind of 'optimized' backtest, or selective memory if you will. You should be happy to clarify your post, not all worked up about being 'questioned' If this is actually your 9th post, then you need to lighten up, we are skeptics here, not sheep.
Short Version: Fischer's concept is: whatever happens in the first 15 minutes defines an opening range, right? When the price trends away from that opening range, we have a trend day. This includes passing back through the opening range and trending out the other side. Jan 6th is a perfect example. That much works for sure. I can't see how you can write a program to use that concept. Otherwise, some bright hedgefund types would have already done it. pumpndump explains it perfectly
I don't see the what the difficulty is in programming this "concept". It's been mentioned several times here that this is a concept and not a system, but I have not seen anything that cannot be quantified, unless I missed something.