You have no understanding of the laws of probability, the performance records of traders over the long run, do you? This kid Schindler is not a proven commodity, what's not to understand? Senseless argument about coins. Anytime you want to bet on the coin not going tails, after 25 heads in a row, call me.
Understand? I neither believe or disbelieve that he is a "proven commodity" as you say, nor have I indicated anything of either. Besides, what's it take to be a proven commodity? It's all debatable. I was giving a general statement, using coins as an example. Are you saying that after 25 heads in a row, you would give yourself better odds that it would land tails? I'll take that bet any day.
If you understand streak probabilities, yes I will make that bet with you. Take Barry Bonds, a proven commodity. Say he is in a slump. What are the odds with each pitch, given his long term record, of hitting a home run each successive strike out? Point is, that most traders, professional traders, professional money managers, proven commodities, will have good and bad streaks. They have learned how to manage their own streakiness. I would prefer to have my money managed by a proven winner in a bad spell, than bet on him if he has been on a hot streak. Remember Kobe's hot streak? What followed? Average performance, if a bit sub-par for him. Why is it that human beings (apart from Tiger Woods) typically run hot and cold? A lot has to do with their psychology, and just the natural order of things. Schindler has no system that I can see, he was foolish enough to admit that he looks at threads in ET for ideas on how to trade. That is a system? Sheesh. If I had my money with the guy, I would pull it immediately upon hearing that. My contention is that 99% of trading is mental, and 1% the mechanical system. It takes a real machine of a trader to go through a losing streak and not flinch on the next trade, and I don't think baby Schindler has the balls for it. My god, the dude had to go to the bathroom several times during the on-line chat because he was so nervous. His puny little fund is not proven so he really is not a good example, but I would put my money with Peter Lynch, Buffett, Niederhoffer or others after a losing streak beyond their historic averages.
"Streak probabilities." Thats a new one. That Barry Bonds example. I would say that his chance of hitting a home run neither improves or worsens just because of his last hit. If there even is a change, I would even say it worsens. Wouldn't that be consistent with your "streak probability?" Why would you bet against the current "streak" as you say. You seem to be contradictory. I find it curious that I never mention Aaron, and yet you continue to bring him up and bash him.
Actually, given the current understanding of the role of human psychology in athletic performances, streaks do play a vital role in performance and predictions of when such streaks might be ending or beginning. Most professional athletes will tell you that confidence is key, and the game is 90% or more mental. I mean, look at golf, is there any game more mental? Why would trading be any different? Isn't confidence key for a trader, not to start to second guess their system, to believe that they will recover, etc? That is why I think a good trader, one to bet on, is a trader who has gone through many different cycles of streaks, winning and losing, and finally arrives at developing an attitude that will absorb the blows of the market and allow him to stay even and professional through the process. And if that seasoned veteran runs into a bad patch, he is typically a good bet for recovery and reversion to his mean. Just keep swinging free and natural, win or lose.
It can be a huge difference. Look at Dynex Corp: "Deepest Peak-to-Valley Drawdown (monthly data)" 35.79% "Deepest Peak-to-Valley Drawdown (daily data)" 63.40% http://www.dynexcorp.com/tetra10table.shtml
1. trading (for the most part) is a fools game. sooner or later you will blow your fund or lose such a substantial amount of money you will close the fund. anyone who is still trading successfully hasn't had it happen to them. yet...... 2. praetorian, with all due respect, with your kind of trading you are heading for Disaster- it seems like when you are down you risk everything to make it back. One of these times it will- notice I said 'will' not 'might'- backfire on you. Peace. triple