in the august call options, today only not including open interest, there was 224,799 of volume between 135-170 strike, and 152,719 volume between 135 and 150 strike. this represents 22,479,900 and 15,271,900 shares of underlying respectively. through a combination of short covering by writers and big money buying to push after hours into strike range for tomorrow morning opening we have only covered about the volume of the 135-150 strike for todays action. in other words, the buying seems to be more driven by short call hedging than new $$ thinking the #'s were great. Apple trades lower than todays settle by the end of this week. Bottom line is that the much anticipated Iphone #'s SUCKED donkey cock.
you have to adjust for deltas and IV drop... so significantly less shares are represented. bottom line is that they surprised on the margin #s, and the sandbagging is now disregarded going into their strongest quarter. This was what the broad markets needed. Tommorow should be a nice big up day for everything... 135.00 APVHG.X 9.00 1.50 8.90 9.00 18,326 33,437 140.00 APVHH.X 6.54 1.14 6.40 6.80 43,865 56,833 145.00 APVHI.X 4.67 0.87 4.60 4.70 30,085 36,093 150.00 APVHJ.X 3.20 0.50 3.10 3.20 60,443 31,174 open interest is the last # of each line. so assuming everyone short calls was gamma hedging, that is 156k options, or lets say avg half that with real delta exposure factored in ... 80 000 options. so 80 000 x 100 = 8million shares. So lets say EVERYONE who was short calls was hedging, that only explains half of the AH volume. Lets say half of the short call OI was hedging, and you are left with only 4million shares of potential volume. the 135s and 140s were most actively hedged, but deltas on the 145s and 150s are still in the 50s. call writers didn't loose terribly much today, especially if they sold some puts too.
You broke rule number one. Nothing that an equity does is the result of the anything in the past. AAPL will take out 190 by year-end and be over 200 by Jan 31, 2008. There are some rumors about new toys around xmas: not just re-hashing of existing products...