Yeah, yeah, yeah. That could have been said at 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, and 85. And you would have been wrong all the way up. I'm not saying this stock is going to 400 but in this mkt right now, the only two real growth stories are AAPL and GOOG. Both have pricing power, brand name, loyal customers, and growing their earnings 50% to 100% year over year. If you want to be long INTC or DELL be my guest. Those stories are over. There is no doubt in my mind that both AAPL and GOOG at some point will not be able to maintain their growth rates. But that day is not here yet. You have to stay long. I would be buying in this 75 area and selling at 85 to 90 and buying back the dips.
aapl is not growing earnings 100% or even 50%.it is projected to earn 2.14 this year and 2.63 next year. that said i dont know how high it goes. but the selloff on good earnings was a warning that big money is nervous and we are heading into the summer when tech can sell off.
Yeah, it looks like a repetition of last April 'disappointment', when the stock, after missing higher end of expectation and giving a weak forecast was going nowhere for a while: I, myself believed the stock was dead when it could nor break previous all time highs of 88.50 (before split), then all of the sudden interest in the stock picked up and it was upgraded just before summer numbers. Investors where recommended to throw anything they had at it and the stock had a phenomenal run that brought us where we are today. Aapl is just hanging around and the likelihood of next time beating the weak guidance it has given is pretty high.
i've only been actively tradeing for 10 months and i am willing to put my ass out there and say this: a stock's price has nothing to do with the companies value - it has to do with market sentiment. i expected aapl to continue it's bullish run, i'm still learning how fickle the market can truely be.
you touch on a point that really pisses me offnot you personally) an analyst/expert/tool can give guidance or forcast where the stock is going, but none of them provide a meaningful time-horizon for the issue. I can say aapl is going to 102$ just as well as sachs can, i can even say that it will be there in the next 12 months - big shit. so what about the funds that care about long-term investments? well, what happens when aapl goes to 102 in 3 months then takes a dive. they were right, but again provided no useful information. Once more, everyone and their brother finds it acceptable to raise and lower targets when the wind changes direction. Does no one hold these analysts accountable? WHat kind of consequences befall them when they are wrong?
its simple really. the analysts dont know. they are guessing just like the rest of us. the only difference is they have people that listen to their guesses. i dont know when aapl tops but i have been trading a long time and i have seen over and over again that a loved stock turns into an unloved stock and it usually happens before the news gets bad. you can look at the history of intc,msft,dell,csco,jdsu,jnpr,yhoo,ebay,amzn,nvda,brcd,cien,ect. the analysts are usually behind the curve. daytraders do not control the stock price on these mega cap companies. big funds control the stock and it is our job as a trader to try and figure out what the big money is thinking by looking at the chart and looking for clues. the chart of aapl looks a little ominous right now. we had a gap down on earnings and a bounce attempt and they closed it on the lows today. maybe it bounces tomorrow but it looks like it could go lower to me. it could easily pull back to 70 where its last base is.