Time will tell lol Apple's PE ratio has been up and down. Only up when they release the next model. I don't see them grow much with their current products. But it's not bad at all. As long as there is no company coming up with new innovative product, they can keep their market share like Nokia did 10 years ago lol. At least, I wouldn't buy Apple stock. With no future growth, it's a kind of overvalued stock ...
Not to split hair because I do see merit in your statements, but I think you have neglected two major factors that often go unseen or ignored by people who point to what you just pointed to, those being: Giffen goods effect and market sentiment (their cult following). 1. Very few companies have as loyal a following as AAPL. I read an interesting articles in Forbes about the 100 most "trusted" brands in America. SBUX, AAPL, J. Crew, Sephora were near the top of that list. Even if AAPL is not the most innovative, never underestimate their cult following. 2. AAPL has the Giffen goods effect going for it. It's sleek, sexy and functional. It is also a status symbol. PCs generally run much cheaper and I have never, ever, ever seen a PC that looked better than a Mac.
San Jose-based Apple supplier buys two businesses for $438M Apple supplier Synaptics, based in San Jose, said it is getting Irvine-based voice and audio processing software companyConexant Systemsfor about $343 million in cash and stock. It will spend another $95 million to buy the multimedia business of Santa Clara-based Marvell Technology Group.(Silicon Valley Business Journal)
Tim Cook says Apple is focusing on an autonomous car system After yearstoiling away in secreton its car project, Apple CEO Tim Cook has for the first time laid out exactly what the company is up to in the automotive market: It’s concentrating on self-driving technology.(Bloomberg)
Let the best self driving technology developer win! I'll bet on who ever captures market share or differentiates themselves when technology comes to market IE I am not making directional calls, rather reacting.
Reactions are usually too late for those kinds of things. I would just divvy up some cash amongst the those in the field. I would be covered no matter what. Also, just because one gets there quicker does not necessarily that the others in the industry will absolutely be left in the dust, and; thus, their shares will not drop near enough to offset the gain of the winner.
Your opinion is contradicted by the history of i-phone. 1st generation i-phone was introduced 2007, ten years on still a cash cow...
That's not a contradiction. Had you pre-empted, you would have made even more. What's more is that an investment in GOOGL or VZ would not have hurt you. So you could have hedged just fine with all three.