Aapl

The new tablet is whats in store for this week for apple, tablet devices have been tried before with no success, going to be interesting to see how well investors and consumers look at this new device. Im looking at it as a bigger Iphone with a few more capabilities. Biggest event since the launch of the Iphone, maybe to some apple fans since sliced bread. Many are anticipating another breakthrough device from apple. It seems since the beginning of the Ipod, apple has been on a complete roll, rolling out products that have just changed the industry, my take on the tablet is that it was tried many years ago and for some reason has never really taken off. What I have been reading about the tablet is that many think its going be another huge success for apple. Another huge change for the industry. Other things though that look a little negative is the price range of the new tablet, some believe it will be priced between $600-$1000, anything above $500 might hold some buyers back. Also talk of adding a plan with the tablet will also turn people off to this device. Who knows what to expect of this come wednesday, if by chance all of the tablet talk and rumors weren't true to begin with, APPLE will quickly sell off 20% or more.

 

Apple earnings are Monday, everyone knows they low ball estimates constantly and always beat greatly on the upside, this time its no different. Also the other benefit to apples earnings will be the shift in accounting sales of its Iphone, they now spread out revenue over two years, with the new changes in accounting rules it would now allow the company to recognize a lot more revenue up front.


What the street expects,

Iphone: 9 Million
Imacs: 3.2 Million
Ipod/Ipod Touch: 20.4 Million


According to Thomson Financial Network, the Street is looking for Apple to report earnings of $2.07 a share on revenue of $12.05 billion, based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).

The consensus among the analysts we polled is that Apple will report non-GAAP earnings of $3.49 on revenue of $14.93 billion — up 31% and 27%, respectively.

 

Note the IV30&#8482 drop and that earnings are today AMC.

The Charts Tab snapshots are included below from Friday (6 mos) and then for today (6 mos) respectively. Images in the article.

For the chart from Friday you can see the exploding IV30&#8482 (red line) relative to the HV30&#8482 (blue line). Also note the IV30&#8482 increase last earnings and the subsequent fall with a gap up in stock price.

The chart from today adds one more data point (today). Note the sell off in vol <i>before earnings.</i>

IV tends upward into earnings as that one specific day has greater vol than others. IV has a tendency to rise as the market falls as well - so AAPL vol was exploding on two phenomenon - (1) earnings and (2) market drop. You can see the level of IV30&#8482 even after the vol drop today is well above anything over the last 6 months (including another earnings cycle). It seems the vol increase may have been over bought, as AAPL vol is lowering pre-earnings.

Finally, you can see that AAPL has a pronounced reverse skew - the calls are bid as high as the puts. For a thorough discussion of "normal" skew shape please read this post: <b><a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/solarfun-solf-call-purchases-with.html">HERE.</a></b>

The 3D skew chart (animated) is included below (this is a rough copy - the real movie is smoother). This Skew chart is coming to Livevol&#8482 Pro soon and is patent pending.

Note the highest strike calls and how high the vol is relative to the other months.
Skew legend:
Red - Front Month
Yellow - Second Month
Green - Third Month
Light Blue - Fourth Month
Dark Blue - Fifth Month
Purple - Sixth Month

This means Feb calls are expensive relative to March.

You can also check out the vol levels last earnings date (pre-earnings - 10/19/2009). --- image in article

Then see how the vols looked the day after earnings. --- image in article

And finally, how the vol looks today. --- image in article

Note the vol crush from pre to after earnings in the front month (red) which is as expected. Note also the higher level of vol this time (dual phenomenon discussion above). The vol crush could be substantial in this cycle - of course, the higher vol implies greater potential for stock movement.

Full article here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/aapl.html

 

$175 or $225 AH for apple...


Big report tonight, I think $225 is coming, the holidays brought upon a great quarter for aapl in my opinion.

 

It's all in the mood - if people still feel positive, it goes up no matter what - but the reverse is also true I think...

 

Think they easily do $2.75+ on eps, rev easily 14.2B+

 

It's all about guidance moving forward

 

underpromise and over deliver....thats all they know how to do.

$15B rev vs $12B

iphone sales actually missed so ever lightly at 8.74M.

 

15.68B vs 14.96B


3.67 vs 3.50


These are the changes made to the accounting methods, these are the real earnings, what cnbc had up before were WAY off.

Believe AAPL is still halted.

 

afterhours trading halted for earnings announcement.

"Apple Beats Street"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/184309-apple-beats-street

Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 EPS of $3.67 smashed consensus estimates of $2.07. Revenue of $15.68B vs. consensus of $12.06B. Sees FQ2 EPS of $2.06-2.18 vs. consensus of $1.77, and revenue of $11-11.4B vs. $10.4B consensus. (10-Q)

Apple shares were +0.7% to $204.36 at 4:30 after gaining 2.6% during regular trading.

Highlights from Apple's FQ1 earnings release:

Apple sold 3.36M Macintosh computers during the quarter, representing a 33% unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.7M iPhones in the quarter, representing 100% unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 21M iPods during the quarter, representing an eight% unit decline from the year-ago quarter.
During the quarter Apple elected retrospective adoption of the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s amended accounting standards* related to certain revenue recognition. Adoption of the new accounting standards significantly changes how the Company accounts for certain items, particularly sales of iPhone and Apple TV.
“If you annualize our quarterly revenue, it’s surprising that Apple is now a $50+ billion company,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we’re really excited about.”
“We are very pleased to have generated $5.8 billion in cash during the quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter of 2010, we expect revenue in the range of about $11.0 billion to $11.4 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share in the range of about $2.06 to $2.18.”