IMO: Value and Dividend Funds are getting in now that their conditions are being met. Hedge Funds that sold at higher prices to take profits at 2012 tax rates, and to cut down on their allowable stock position %, are re-buying to make the same profits over again. And all the shorties are covering as they get Squisssssshed... Will this continue all the way back up to 700, or is some of the resistance overhead thick enough to stop the ascent? We'll see. P.S. Looks a bit like a rocket launch don't you think?
Nice candle from friday...if that was the bottom, next stop is somewhere in the 600-650 area...come Spring 2013...or maybe by next week, the way APPL's moving Good luck with your option trades...
Bad News: Had to take some cash out of the account yesterday for an emergency, so I was forced to close a position much earlier than originally planned. Good News: Was able to close for a profit! AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Long Call] Bet: AAPL Closes at/Approaches 595.25 by 04/19/13 11/08/12: BUY +1 AAPL 100 APR 13 600 CALL at 27.50 LMT (AAPL at 547.23) 11/20/12: SELL -1 AAPL 100 APR 13 600 CALL at 31.75 LMT (AAPL at 561.43) Buy: debit $2,750.00 + $1.50 = $2,751.50 Sell: credit $3,175.00 - $1.50 = $3,173.50 Net Profit: +$422.00 (+15.34% in 2 weeks)
Transferred from "AAPL: Buying The Dips!": 11-25-12 08:45 AM There's lots of Bull/Bear debate as to why AAPL fell for 8 straight weeks after it hit 700+. I think it was because Hedge Funds sold to lock in gains at 2012 tax rates, and/or to rebalance their AAPL positions because they had risen above their allowable % to be held in any one stock. I don't think the stock fell for any fundamental reasons. So from that point of view AAPL doesn't belong where it is, and should go back up to 700 as the those Hedge Funds buy back in at lower prices, Value and Dividend Growth Funds start buying because AAPL now meets their specifications, and all the Shorts get squeezed and cover as their stop-losses are hit. I believe that process began when AAPL hit 505.75, and will be further helped along when The Street starts speculating about AAPL's Holiday Sales and 1st quarter Earnings.
Transferred from "AAPL: Buying The Dips!": 11-26-12 07:56 AM The other question is how long will it take to make 700+? Looking back at AAPL's last 2 big rallies on the attached chart: From 517.58 to 701.86 (+35.60%) took from 5/18/12 to 9/21/12. From 360.12 to 638.33 (+77.26%) took from 11/21/11 to 4/10/12. From 505.75, a 35.60% rally would bring AAPL up to 685.80, and a 77.26% rally would bring it up to 896.49! Of course there's more overhead supply to rise through this time, and macroeconomic conditions are always changing. But AAPL is certainly capable of rallying 38.41% from 505.75, and making 700 by April...
1. Sold one of my April Calls for a profit: AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Long Call] Bet: AAPL Closes at/Approaches 615.35 by 04/19/13 11/15/12: BUY +1 AAPL 100 APR 13 595 CALL at 20.35 LMT (AAPL at 527.93) 11/27/12: SELL -1 AAPL 100 APR 13 595 CALL at 43.10 LMT (AAPL at 584.62) Max Loss: $2,035.00 Buy: debit $2,035.00 + $1.50 = $2,036.50 Sell: credit $4,310.00 - $1.50 = $4,308.50 Net Profit: $2,272.00 (+111.56% in 2 weeks) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Removed $1,200.00 Cash from the account. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. Bought an AAPL June 650 Call: AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Long Call] Bet: AAPL Closes at/Approaches 681.00 by 06/21/13 11/27/12: BUY +1 AAPL 100 JUN 13 650 CALL at 31.00 LMT (AAPL at 584.40) Max Loss: $3,100.00 Cost of Trade: debit $3,100.00 + $1.50 = $3,101.50 Max Profit: Infinite *Earnings Announcement: 04/24/13? After Close*
Decided to Close 11 Bull Put Spreads for a slight net profit. Will use the proceeds towards Buying 1 AAPL Long Call, probably tomorrow. AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Bull Put Spread] Bet: AAPL Closes at 590.00 or Higher on 04/19/13 10/26/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 590/585 PUT at 2.52 LMT (AAPL at 592.81) 11/29/12: BUY +3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 590/585 PUT at 2.58 LMT (AAPL at (ave.) 589.23) Break Even: 587.48 Max Loss: $744.00 Sell: credit $756.00 - $9.00 = $747.00 Buy: debit $$774.00 + $9.00 = $783.00 Net Loss: -$36.00 AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Bull Put Spread] Bet: AAPL Closes at 580.00 or Higher on 04/19/13 11/02/12: SELL -3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at 2.52 LMT (AAPL at 581.80) 11/29/12: BUY +3 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at (ave.) 2.41 LMT (AAPL at (ave.) 589.46) Break Even: 577.48 Max Loss: $744.00 Sell: credit $756.00 - $9.00 = $747.00 Buy: debit $722.00 + $9.00 = $731.00 Net Profit: +$16.00 AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Bull Put Spread] Bet: AAPL Closes at 580.00 or Higher on 04/19/13 11/02/12: SELL -5 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at 2.62 LMT (AAPL at 574.96) 11/29/12: BUY +5 VERTICAL AAPL 100 APR 13 580/575 PUT at (ave.) 2.41 LMT (AAPL at (ave.) 589.37) Break Even: 577.38 Max Loss: $1,190.00 Sell: credit $1,310.00 - $15.00 = $1,295.00 Buy: debit $1204.00 + $15.00 = $1,219.00 Net Profit: +$76.00 Total Net Profit for 11 Bull Put Spreads = +$56.00 Total Net Proceeds towards 1 AAPL Long Call = +$2767.00
AAPL consolidating nicely above 580. A "pause for the cause" before its next spurt upwards? We'll see. Bought 1 AAPL June 665 Call: AAPL (Computer-Hardware/Perip Group) About AAPL: MANUFACTURES PERSONAL COMPUTERS, MOBILE COMMUNICATION DEVICES AND PORTABLE DIGITAL MUSIC PLAYERS [Long Call] Bet: AAPL Closes at/Approaches 595.25 by 06/21/13 11/30/12: BUY +1 AAPL 100 JUN 13 665 CALL at 26.40 LMT (AAPL at 585.07) Break Even: 691.40 Max Loss: $2,640.00 Cost of Trade: debit $2,640.00 + $1.50 = $2,641.50 Max Profit: Infinite *Earnings Announcement: 04/24/13? After Close*