July 80 puts starting to get expensive. Someone else sees the pattern I see. I say it has a good chance to revist 50-60 during the summer. Price will have to be under 74.16 to make any cash. 1000 shares=$5840. It would be more of a gamble then an investment. The maximum you could lose is $5840.
If I had to predict, my glass ball says it'll break 100-110 before it breaks down. and i think it'll break down to 65-70 territory at most - apple is a different sized company entirely. furthermore, this iphone could put a dent into your short strategy. with recession, apple at 65-70 sounds like it could work. i'd wait til jan 1 to scale into those puts.
This is why you would go for a Debt Spread to lower your costs. Buy the AAPL July 80 Call @ $6.00 and sell one of the strikes below: July 75 @ $4.00 maximum loss/gain $2.00/$3.00 July 70 @ $2.65 maximum loss/gain $3.35/$6.65 July 65 @ $1.65 maximum loss/gain $4.35/$10.65 July 60 @ $0.95 maximum loss/gain $5.05/$19.05
Anything is possible. It would be pure 100% speculation as of this very minute, because technically speaking, AAPL is in limbo. On 12/5 a sell signal was given both on the MACD and STOCH & this was confirmed on 12/6. On 12/7 it broke down revisiting a 1 month low at $87. You would really have to use a very short term MACD, like 5 days or less to justify it breaking $90 again. The nice thing about AAPL though, is it really moves under similar conditions like GOOG. When its being aggressively purchased, the market makers really jack up the price and you are usually chasing .25 gaps. On the plus side of your gamble, if anything should hit the news this week, such as ipod sales, etc booming more than last year, or ZUNE getting crushed, that would be all it would need.
AAPL needs to hold 86.00 today, the Dec 05 peak. Breaking it won't necessarily nullify the bull trend, but would shake the confidence of traders to push this baby higher.