Mr market is pricing the ATM straddle at apx 21% of spot ( 110 dollars.for the 510 straddle) If you believe its a 500-700 rang for the next 6 months why don't you just trade AAPL vol???
taowave, Right now I have 43 AAPL trades on (40 Bull Put Spreads and 3 Long Calls) which close between December 28th and June 21st. So I won't be opening many new positions, especially since AAPL's 45 month Uptrend has ended. My hands will be full just trying to get back into cash without a net loss! It will all be a matter of timing of course, trying to "sell the rallies", etc.
I see..So you are flat out long... I would partially offset your long calls..Vol is high enough where on a modest rally,the OTM calls probably aren't going anywhere.
If AAPL has some rallies back up into the high 500's to low 600's I should be able to break even on most of the Spreads. I've already closed some that way back in late November. I bought the June Calls with AAPL in the 580's. So they should show some profits above that, to cancel out some of the loses in the Spreads. A real juggling game to be sure!
tomorrow will be an interesting day hell any day can be interesting if this stock gaps down. i hate the cnbc traders and i question if they make good money at times. one guy repeatedly said apple is the buy of the century around 520 and it will never be there again. how the market is so strong with apple down so much is odd. i really felt so goes apple so goes the markets. the alarm to me with the markets is everybody they put on TV tells you that you need div stocks. i don't know how the fed chair can keep his job if the markets go down 25% and who made it his job to get the unemployment rates down. i don't understand how china is now looking great and europe is about to solve all there problems. next time a rich person cries about higher taxes and poor people getting a little financial help punch them in the face haha. our fed and other countries are just propping up the stock markets and the bill will be given to the whole country in the end.
Might be another gap down tomorrow - AAPL downgraded by Citi Sunday night. If so, it's another high probability setup for a gap fill.
AAPL Update: Current Trading Range: 505.58 to 594.59 Has been below 40 wk. MA (now at 596.41) for 7 weeks. Getting downgraded by more and more analysts... What will happen next??
Probably will break the big 500 number (did in the PM session)...and with so many getting negative on AAPL, it'll more than likely have a nice bounce. Since everyone and their brother see that big H&S, the easy trade (short) will probably not work, for some time, at least. Daytrading AAPL still works...