AAPL swing setup for earnings

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Raul641, Apr 20, 2008.

  1. Raul641



    I've attached an annotated 1 year daily chart of AAPL. I am still rather new and I'd like to hear any feedback on this trade, and the potential for another next week, depending on the action..

    I shorted last week after the harami bounce off of resistance indicated by the Nov-Dec low and August high, then got out on Friday for a small loss after the big gap up on good volume during the broader tech rally.

    AAPL reports on the 23rd, this Wednesday. I personally expect MacBook Air sales to disappoint, and I doubt iPhone sales will make up for it. Tech has been doing well lately on overseas sales, and the Europeans don't seem to be very impressed with the iPhone.

    I suspect AAPL rallied up to resistance, and stopped there, on spillover from other tech earnings. Unless it goes strongly over resistance, I would short again early next week on this theory.

    My question.. is this a good take on the situation? Or am I trying too hard to find an interpretation that would make my original short not a failed trade?

    All opinions are welcome. Thanks in advance.
  2. Just my opinion

    Trading earnings is pure speculation.

    Trading a market darling like AAPL is even higher risk.

    Pattern could well be a cup w/handle??

  3. Totally agree. Just go to vegas rather then hold AAPL over earnings. Maybe play options for the volitility but 20% up or down is almost a certainty in this environment. unless you have someone on the inside, that kind of risk is not for traders.