Doing a google news scan for any commentary by 'market pros' regarding AAPL earnings and there aren't any. The experts are as clueless now as they have always been. However, there have only been three disaster quarters in the past 3 years (jan 2006, Jan 2007, Jan 2008) so from a statistical standpoint the trade seems to favor longs. Having two horrible quarters in a row would be very unusual for a company like AAPL.
horrible quarter? They blew away earnings last quarter in Jan 08. It was their guidance that took the stock down, along with the overall credit turmoil in the markets.