Aapl, Goog, Eln, Sndk, ...

Discussion in 'Journals' started by gg12, Mar 26, 2006.

  1. gg12

    gg12

    Hi DeltaSpread,

    yes, I follow GOOG, which is a phantastic story!

    I have attached a chart for you. Long since 486.
    Stop is currently at 484.
    I am using a 10 day grid, with 2 points resolution.
    For a straddle the GOOG is currently too bullish.

    I have to make checks on ICE and NYX. Both stocks seem to be very strong as well. ICE has risk below 124. NYX looks fine above 101.

    Regards,

    gg12
     
    #51     Jan 5, 2007
  2. gg12

    gg12

    NYX is long with stop at 101.
    If you want trail: 102 would be next, if NYX is crossing 103.
     
    #52     Jan 5, 2007
  3. gg12

    gg12

    Attachment for ICE
     
    #53     Jan 5, 2007
  4. gg12

    gg12

    The volatility of AAPL options is far above the vola of the AAPL stock.

    AAPL options = 47.59
    Historical 30 days vola = 29.64
    Ratio >1.60

    That means that AAPL options are relatively expensive. See attached graphics (source ivolatility.com)
     
    #54     Jan 9, 2007
  5. gg12

    gg12

    Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value
    QAAAR 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 90 C -1 1.936356 100 -193.64
    QAAMP 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 80 P -1 1.484181 100 -148.42
    Total -342.06

    Theoretical Profit (Position is not closed yet)
    Straddle Sold 405.00
    Settle Value -342.06
    Profit 62.94, +15.54%
     
    #55     Jan 9, 2007
  6. gg12

    gg12

    Graphics shows Analysis of AAPL.
    Also showing Call and Put strike levels.
     
    #56     Jan 9, 2007
  7. gg12

    gg12

    Attached Graphics shows how a potential strategy on Appl could be designed (be aware that strategies in trading only work temporarly and have to be daily checked and eventually adjusted to new market conditions):

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Buy in direction of the trend based on 2 point closing price grid.
    Cash profit if 10 points are reached (equals 8 points gain: 10 - 2).
    Stop if trend is broken by 2 points.
    All based on end of day closing values.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Be aware of gaps and always place stops immediately when opening positions.
    Strictly limit your risk!
    Start trading with 1 share if necessary to train your discipline.
    Follow the market and Appl daily.
    Low commissions keep trading costs down.

    We have 18 trades. 4 were stopped out with loss. 6 made the profit by reaching 10 points, with a gain of 8 points (10 - 2).

    Waves are 231352251582614154.
    Max. Profits are 01-114004-14404-12-142 = 26 units (a 2 points).
     
    #57     Jan 9, 2007
  8. gg12

    gg12

    I had massive problems with my trading stile today.

    I had to close my strangle because Aapl jumped up 8.45% and I was not prepared for that move.

    I closed the 80 Put at 0.44
    I was liquidated on the Call at 4.90

    In total it's 5.34 what I had payed today (not included commisions).
    I opened that straddle at 4.05 and faced a quite significant loss.

    Feel like a novice... But it's my fault!!!!

    PS: Because I never give up I opened a new strangle:

    -1 C95 Jan 2.20
    -1 P90 Jan 1.90
    Total 4.10
     
    #58     Jan 9, 2007
  9. gg12

    gg12

    I need to be more careful with trending stocks.

    I had to buy back the Straddle for a lot of money yesterday. Appl continued to raise and I didn't want to speculate on a chance in trend (and risk unlimited money):

    C 415
    P 125
    -------
    T 540

    To respect the trend now and I am long:

    +1 Call 100 Jan bought at 105

    Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value
    QAAAT 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 100 C 1 1.80714 100 180.71
     
    #59     Jan 11, 2007
  10. gg12

    gg12

    I have attached a chart of Aaal which shows the waves on a 2 point grid (closing prices).

    Thie trend is up based on this view.

    The waves are:
    231352251582614154?


    The systems is S151:
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Entry 1
    PT 5
    Exit -1 Trailing on 2 point grid (closing prices)
    ---------------------------------------------------------

    Result is 26 points in 18 trades

    Current state is long from 84 (if profit target is not applied)
    TS is 94 on a closing base
     
    #60     Jan 14, 2007