Hi DeltaSpread, yes, I follow GOOG, which is a phantastic story! I have attached a chart for you. Long since 486. Stop is currently at 484. I am using a 10 day grid, with 2 points resolution. For a straddle the GOOG is currently too bullish. I have to make checks on ICE and NYX. Both stocks seem to be very strong as well. ICE has risk below 124. NYX looks fine above 101. Regards, gg12
The volatility of AAPL options is far above the vola of the AAPL stock. AAPL options = 47.59 Historical 30 days vola = 29.64 Ratio >1.60 That means that AAPL options are relatively expensive. See attached graphics (source ivolatility.com)
Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value QAAAR 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 90 C -1 1.936356 100 -193.64 QAAMP 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 80 P -1 1.484181 100 -148.42 Total -342.06 Theoretical Profit (Position is not closed yet) Straddle Sold 405.00 Settle Value -342.06 Profit 62.94, +15.54%
Attached Graphics shows how a potential strategy on Appl could be designed (be aware that strategies in trading only work temporarly and have to be daily checked and eventually adjusted to new market conditions): ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy in direction of the trend based on 2 point closing price grid. Cash profit if 10 points are reached (equals 8 points gain: 10 - 2). Stop if trend is broken by 2 points. All based on end of day closing values. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Be aware of gaps and always place stops immediately when opening positions. Strictly limit your risk! Start trading with 1 share if necessary to train your discipline. Follow the market and Appl daily. Low commissions keep trading costs down. We have 18 trades. 4 were stopped out with loss. 6 made the profit by reaching 10 points, with a gain of 8 points (10 - 2). Waves are 231352251582614154. Max. Profits are 01-114004-14404-12-142 = 26 units (a 2 points).
I had massive problems with my trading stile today. I had to close my strangle because Aapl jumped up 8.45% and I was not prepared for that move. I closed the 80 Put at 0.44 I was liquidated on the Call at 4.90 In total it's 5.34 what I had payed today (not included commisions). I opened that straddle at 4.05 and faced a quite significant loss. Feel like a novice... But it's my fault!!!! PS: Because I never give up I opened a new strangle: -1 C95 Jan 2.20 -1 P90 Jan 1.90 Total 4.10
I need to be more careful with trending stocks. I had to buy back the Straddle for a lot of money yesterday. Appl continued to raise and I didn't want to speculate on a chance in trend (and risk unlimited money): C 415 P 125 ------- T 540 To respect the trend now and I am long: +1 Call 100 Jan bought at 105 Symbol Expiration Date Description Qty Closing Price Multiplier Value Value QAAAT 2007-01-20 AAPL JAN07 100 C 1 1.80714 100 180.71
I have attached a chart of Aaal which shows the waves on a 2 point grid (closing prices). Thie trend is up based on this view. The waves are: 231352251582614154? The systems is S151: --------------------------------------------------------- Entry 1 PT 5 Exit -1 Trailing on 2 point grid (closing prices) --------------------------------------------------------- Result is 26 points in 18 trades Current state is long from 84 (if profit target is not applied) TS is 94 on a closing base