Discussion in 'Stocks' started by FreakofNature, Jul 23, 2012.
Let us test the Elite in Elite Trader
Close to open I'm looking for a 25 to 30 point move.
i have one 600/615/630 call fly for 2.12 to express my slight upside bias on earnings.. two 550/545 otm credit spread paying for .34 each.. my risk is 1000 dollars and the 1.44 debit.. perfectly willing to take it... 50 dollars otm is good and clear of what the implied move is predicting.. which is like 5.6 percent or 34 dollars.. i'm not thinking this is going to be a tail event to the downside..
my probability band experiments put it blowing my credit spread put strikes as less then a 0.135% chance of blowing through my lower strikes.. i'm willing to bet against such a downside move with Apple..
net debit 2.12
net credit .68
As you know, I don't play earnings because I find them to be a gamble but I see too much bearishness around this stock, although sometimes I do take the Las Vegas stance for recreation
If i had to make a "FUN" call, I would say a short squeeze is in order.
Betting against AAPL has proven to be quite suicidal but that's just the past, know nothing about the future.
Best of luck with your option trade, hope it breaks all time highs for you, I'm standing on the sidelines as usual.
Its an extremely small bet... but thanks.. if it does blow up in my face I'll still be a happy person and you can't win that in a trade.. to be more serious I am modeling earnings trades and the only way I believe to do.it is to.have a little skin in the game
It will blast off after hours. what has changed since the last 5-6 quarters?. global sales picked up huge, Iphone 5 blurb will prob be released.
Has samsung taken some market share?, I doubt it.
Companies are starting to.catch up. But aapl has great market share momentum..aaple isn't gonna just stop making money over night
You should get a news service. AAPL will likely miss on poor IP4S sales. Not to say the shares will plummet, but the IP4S has not been selling well.
The Jan13 400/600/800 fly was a buy at 102. Good to 110.
A 100 dollar wide butterfly? Maybe your right. But your saying they are bad at forecasting their sales to
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