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Too much gamma in the front months. Obviously too little vega. The tenor was chosen as it was inside the third reporting date, and I expect vol to drop to 28.xx% on Oct and Jan to match. As you widen you gain vegas. I chose 600/610 due to rates(div), but obv it's embedded. Basic stuff.
picked up the 580/585/590 (puts) weekly for .20, it closed at .52,.. what are my shots at still selling half the position for .40+ tomorrow and letting the rest ride till opex? at a loss how to figure the fly might open/trade tomorrow, with the IV crush and being through all the strikes $15-20 on the other side now. guess a greekless guy like me just has to wait for the aapl option market maker's computers to figure it out for me come tomorrow. should've stuck with the simpler 585/580 debit spread in the $1.50-$1.60 range, even with the crush, it should open up 70%+. if you were biased to the negative and expected the priced in $34 move, it was that woulda, coulda, shoulda trades for the release, in hindsight. who knows what the open holds though, maybe japan will print some yen to buy AAPL shares again. iProducts sales are now of a central banking importance, who actually *uses* an ounce a gold for a year or two, then buys another to replace it?
I think you will need a bounce past $580, with three days to go you might get it. It's almost a free position so you have nothing to lose.
whats gold have to do with it... are you just referring to it as a non working asset? i like the flys because they are such a cheap investment/reward ratio.. but the idea is to be able to be wrong quite abit and the skewed pay off of options to make sense of the bad decisions.. ahh i am a piker to! haha but i don't know why i like selling credit spreads and buying ratio backspreads, and flys... gold blew up because dollars became less valuable as the printing machine came out..
yeah you have 20 bucks per combo out.. unless you bought 1000 of them.. your good! let it ride go for the big pay off.. i would bet that all the closing profitable put trades is going to cause it to jump up a little.. i seriously don't think major players are dumping on this news.. game hasn't changed with apple..
I am selling AAPL 560 PUT for July 27 at this point. I believe AAPL at this level is very attractive.