AAPL Earnings this Tuesday - 580/600/620 Weekly Butterfly only $3.50

I have been curious about this for a while; so with AAPL down will you leg out of fly and look to convert to a potentially more profitable trade, rather than wait for AAPL to see 600 in 6 months

 

does the implied of back months after earnings collapse such that it might be reasonable to take a position long vol after earnings vol implode? i mean stocks seem to just sit after busting a blowing up for a while on lower then historic volatility. or at least i've observed a few times.. is it reasonable to think its a good time to position long volatility?

 

AAPL @ $570.00 during AH trading, looking for a bounce to >$583 by Friday - with 3 trading days left that is possible. I will update later on in the week.

 

Yeah, you do that, Sport. $568 last.

 

I am looking for 4-5 tomorrow. I will cover a bit but hold the remainder, possibly until expiration (tax-deferral), but with an intermediate goal of a strike touch (at lower vol). AAPL reports in the Feb13 series, so only one Q report in the interim.

 

the closing of all the in profit puts will most likely cause the stock to pop tommorrow a little

 

thats a super wide butterfly.. i'm never even thought about doing that before

 

Hi atticus,

I was wondering if you could walk us through the exact setup you have with that and what you look for in such a butterfly (i.e. do you look at percent chance of staying in a range, risk/reward, etc).

If you don't want to give your exact details, maybe you could just lay out a simple example for people who don't do too many of these (like me).

BTW - I almost put on a weeklies bull put spread on AAPL today (580-575) thinking they would probably do ok - glad I decided it would just be gambling and didn't do it!

Thanks,

JJacksET4

 

I put a 550545 spread on.figuring it would have to be catastrophic to.get down that low