AAPL - Calls or Puts or Straddles?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by skaranam, Jul 24, 2007.

  1. skaranam


    What are you buying ahead of the results?
  2. rdm239


    gotta buy the ps, everyone is panicking and looking for a time to sell.
  3. Put or straddles. Be awares volatility is off the charts
  4. calls
  5. well lets figure this out...

    bull case for aapl (obvious)
    1) *real* iphone results don't come this Q. they come next. we won't really get a great idea of sales from this earnings. that lack of information could support the stock (unknowns are often better... that way there is no 'sell the news')
    2) they *will* guide higher for next Q if you consider macbook/etc sales for back to school season is included for it.
    3) there is a possibility we could find out confirmation of the at&t kickback/etc (unless its already released. i haven't researched this yet) more specifically. this will give analysts fuel to show that every million iphones is $500mil in *earnings* to the bottom line. definite price support.

    bear case:
    1) not much iphone hype momentum left.
    2) no earnings momentum left.
    3) we're already up 40% since last earnings.

    with that considered, I'm a buyer of stock, not volatility, since it will inevitably drop. this dip should be a good buying opp. bought a nibble at 137.50. downside support at 120? upside at 150-160 upon kickback confirmation from at&t. good 1:1 risk reward i think.

    i think selling 120 or 115 puts naked here may also be a good trade.

    but with this also considered, i argued the overvaluation of amzn holding shorts into that earnings. (covered at 78) look how well I did. So maybe doing the opposite of what makes sense may work best.
  6. Ouch

    I really hope you didn't buy puts
  7. what are you talking about?

    i bought stock and even suggested selling naked puts (didn't sell puts myself tho).
  8. oh my bad