I appreciate your analysis. It is not without merit. If you prefer, you can use the "Ignore" button to filter out Joab. But then, I won't be able to enjoy your analysis response.
This trade will work to expiry if we get another correction between now and then. But remember, AAPL, already beaten down, held strength at 85 during the last corrective move. Otherwise, you are fighting earnings runup momentum. Maybe you could sell the 90/85 put spread as well to make the payoff guarantee a higher probability of success.
Put up or shut up? Ok. Here's a live trade from a few days ago. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1415037#post1415037 That was around $5K US on one trade (intraday). Good Luck with your trades and till then go f urself as well
One more thing, markets are almost set to advance this week, AAPL will most likely be bought than sold when that happens IMHO.
from the double top, i am not concerned. thats why i dont trade options - i dont know much about them (hands on experience) and im sure someone out there would FLEECE ME if i got involved. cash short from the double top.
Would you be able to comment why you believe it to be a double top? I mean $97.50 is resistance OK, but why are you convinced it is actually a double top? I thought price has to take out support & support to turn resistance for it to be classed as a double top. I think you are confusing selling resistance with a double top formation, which has to be confirmed by certain parameters OR perhaps you are using FA?
I'm sure you can see the daily top made 01 10 07 right ? It proved to be significant resistance correct? We are simply retesting that area. Volatility is very high on this retest and it "should" take sometime to contract and build up enough strength to pierce the highs if it is ever going too. That's WHY I traded a Vert Bear Call spread. To have time working for me. The probabilities are in my favor and the r:r is manageable and acceptable. The volume on the options is enough for me to move size comfortably. This trade is not rocket science
for all intents and purposes, for my small fry account and my eyeballs, whatever they are worth.... that is a double top... WITH a bunch of other indicators indicating weakness... imo. im not all riled up about this. AAPL would have to take back a lot of money from me for it to look like this was a mistake. all imo. just discussion.