Never been worse? and yet this entire thread has been nothing but bottom picking for close to 200 points?
This doesn't look like the end of the world to me either. Compare this latest retracement from 147.32 to the ones last year from 132.17, and in 2010 from 116.05. Much, much less volume this time as well. Just looks like a controlled 8.24% pullback to a Higher Low so far to me. Some good news and SPY could easily reverse and go back up to 145.
interesting call since you only post 15 times a year you are already smarter than most of us. i keep hearing there is a big move up. i am really just looking at economics my gut tells me a correction is coming. i don't know if it happens in 6 months or now but i don't see the good news to carry this market forever. i find the fed very confusing because they are just printing our money and giving it to banks for free. i don't get how this fixes a problem.
Buying the dips in AAPL, and averaging down has worked for 44 months. But if you do it on the last pullback, when the Trend comes to an end, you will take a loss, yes. That's the risk involved.
I'm no economist, but I'm not sure it is fixable. It requires job creation and growth in the US and Europe. Will that ever happen when everything is made in 3rd World countries? Since March 2009 it's been this "melt-up", 0% rates, QE thing keeping it going. The Dollar hasn't been falling lately either, so the "debasing your currency for the exporters" thing isn't working right now. The other currencies are falling against the Dollar because their countries are even worse off, and they're doing their "debasing" better I guess.
I agree and am bearish as well. My comment and attached chart was just probabilities from my studies. Even though I think it may bounce between the two, I think the trend is down.
My daughters ipad mini arrived on wednesday. After using it i can see why Steve Jobs was not impressed by smaller tablets. And the ipad mini is probably a better experience than the smaller android tablets. But i dont think he would have ever done it, maybe he authorised it in his last few months as ceo, but i dont think a fully fit Jobs would have come under pressure to do it. Still its a nice toy for my 8 year old (the mini is ideal for her smaller fingers) and she absolutely loves it.
The only rational way to have stayed long AAPL for this whole decline was if your position was based purely on investment merit (i.e. valuation relative to fundamental outlook) whilst ignoring the deteriorating price action. However, your first post was talking more about technicals and didn't mention valuation at all, so it was clearly not an investment. The fact that your trading view has been totally unchanged during a 25% decline means that you are not a trader, you are a bagholder.
Not sure what your definitions of "Trader" and "Bagholder" are, but as to fundamentals I did mention AAPL's low PE ratio, popular products, etc., and the current 0% interest rates several times. My longer term technical approach has been consistent. It's based on making 6 month bets, not short term swing trades. (If I was a short term swing trader I would have been short a while ago, probably at around 650 when the Head & Shoulders neckline on the daily chart was broken.) AAPL has still not violated its Long Term Uptrend (i.e. the last Higher Low has not been taken out yet), so until it does I'll sit tight. I may end up being wrong, and am close to being wrong, but I'm not wrong yet - and have an exit plan if I am. P.S. Here's an interview from another "Trader" who thinks this is a buying opportunity: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/market-dip-good-news-now-time-buy-stocks-161825621.html