AAPL: Buying the Dips!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by cactiman, Oct 6, 2012.

  1. APPL is in a serious long term "friendly" Uptrend, and the stock's fundamentals are great.
    Looking at this 3 year weekly AAPL chart, it's very clear every single pullback was a buying opportunity.
    But these retracements don't feel good when they happen, and can last for a while.
    The 424.88 to 361.77 pullback in 2011 (-14.85%), and the 641.25 to 519.95 pullback earlier this year (-18.92%) both took 6 weeks to complete.
    But both were subsequently followed by great rallies, from 361.77 to 641.25 (+77.25%), and from 519.95 to 705.07 (+35.60%).
    One step back, 2 (or more) steps forward...
    So far this "dip" from 705.07 to a low of 650.65 (-7.72%) has gone on for 3 weeks.
    I added to my long position this week at 656.25, and will do so again soon, in preparation for the next rally.
  2. remember earnings is just after oct expiration... i'm looking for a floor in the 630 to 645 range.. sell down into earnings with a beat and back up to 720 area.. if that doesn't happen.. no big deal.. its a good risk reward considering the company is apple..i try to follow "never call tops and don't counter trend trade on large time frames.." probably gonna sell some 600 strikes and broken wing butterfly upwards.. 660/680/710 or 680/700/730 on the cheap.. micro risk reversals all limited risk..
    lotta retail and alot of big money in the apple trade.. it freaking is a heavy weight in the index to.. its actually overweighted in the index .. apple fail would literally cause the market to fall just by itself i would think.. just a guess
  3. Cool. I've been selling Jan, Feb & Apr AAPL 700/695 Bull Put Spreads, for great credits on the down days. Figuring 700 will be APPL's new support level soon enough. We'll see...
  4. Selling itm credit spreads...hmmm interesting way to express yourself buddy.. I've thought about that before... very limited downside to that trade.. buy back at a small loss at expiration.. or scalp on surges up.. put them on when surge down
  5. bought some 640/630 puts.

    No.1 I saw MCAD divergence signal. this is pretty reliable to find top. the chart

    No.2 640~650 is a critical price, that is former high (several months ago). from uptrending view, those are support. but when I look at the volume, I start to realize those level will easily break through to 600 even 600 under. when down bar, the volume is high, but when bounce the volume is low, classical downtrend characertics.

    No.3 the 680 high before and the 705 the highest in the mdiddle, and the bounce high 670~670, made a typical shoulder and head topping pattern.

    something is brewing, my puts so far already doubled, that at this moment already prove the direction is down.

    I am not a fan about AAPL. apple's products will go out of favor, those products just create ADDICTION and other unhealthy habbits, people just do not realize it.
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  6. i don't own anything aapl... i just trade it.. if it is forming a head & shoulders its right at the right shoulder right now.. which means up on the short term.. i have a hard time following all that TA randomness.. i mean.. on such a huge run up for like 350.. i would think a pull back after doubling is healthy no?
  7. Daring


    I've been long GOOG short AAPL as a hedge trade.

    Whether I like or dislike a company, we are at the mercy of world events and index momentum, so hardly take directional bets in companies without hedging them.
  8. The headwinds can't be more then 100 points up or here right now
  9. Daring


    I disagree, anything is possible.

  10. This is a good example of different chart interpretations due to different time frames.
    My weekly chart and multi-month trading approach has no problem with a 6 week pullback at this point.
    AAPL could fall to 600 even, and I'd interpret the long term uptrend as still being in place.
    Meanwhile, shorter term trades via daily charts and a different interpretation enable you to make some good money with Puts during the fall from 705.
    And day traders with 5 minute charts are probably making money on the long and short side every couple of hours...
    #10     Oct 7, 2012